Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects with Tree-Based Methods under Imperfect Compliance
Abstract
We study the impact of conditional complier average causal effect (CCACE) estimation methods on the performance of subgroup discovery and heterogeneous causal effect estimation under imperfect compliance. Building on the Bayesian Causal Forest with Instrumental Variable (BCF-IV) (Bargagli-Stoffi et al. (2022)) method, we introduce a two-step, model-agnostic approach that allows any suitable machine learning method to be used for the CCACE estimation in the first step. Specifically, we implement two non-Bayesian tree-based methods, both using forest-based learners: DRRF-IV, a debiased transformed-outcome regression-forest approach, and a GRF-based IV adaptation of the generalized random forest framework (Athey et al., 2019). Through a simulation study, we assess the precision, bias, and the ability to correctly identify the underlying subgroup structure of the proposed methods relative to BCF-IV. The results show that the non-Bayesian methods perform competitively across the considered simulation settings, with performance improving for larger sample sizes and moderately large treatment effects, while reducing computational runtime. We apply our new methods by revisiting an empirical study that examines the effect of prompt admission to intensive care units (ICU) on 28-day mortality across 48 UK National Health Service hospitals. While previous work finds no significant overall treatment effect, we investigate whether subgroups of patients may benefit more from prompt ICU admission.
Related
- Estimating Causal Bounds from Observational Data With Neural Generative Models
- Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from randomised trials: a comparison of the risk modelling and treatment effect modelling approaches
- Estimating Causal Treatment Effects in Placebo-Controlled Randomized Clinical Trials When High Placebo Response is Anticipated
- Where to weight? Estimating population causal effects with weighted double score matching in complex surveys
- A unified framework for estimating direct causal effect under spatial confounding and interference, with the R package spaci
BibTeX
@misc{gliszczynskaschroeder2026estimating,
title = {{Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects with Tree-Based Methods under Imperfect Compliance}},
author = {Karolina Gliszczyńska-Schroeder},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.31769},
eprint = {2609.31769},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31769},
note = {CC BY-NC-SA 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Estimating Heterogeneous Causal Effects with Tree-Based Methods under Imperfect Compliance
AU - Karolina Gliszczyńska-Schroeder
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/24
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.31769
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.31769
AB - We study the impact of conditional complier average causal effect (CCACE) estimation methods on the performance of subgroup discovery and heterogeneous causal effect estimation under imperfect compliance. Building on the Bayesian Causal Forest with Instrumental Variable (BCF-IV) (Bargagli-Stoffi et al. (2022)) method, we introduce a two-step, model-agnostic approach that allows any suitable machine learning method to be used for the CCACE estimation in the first step. Specifically, we implement two non-Bayesian tree-based methods, both using forest-based learners: DRRF-IV, a debiased transformed-outcome regression-forest approach, and a GRF-based IV adaptation of the generalized random forest framework (Athey et al., 2019). Through a simulation study, we assess the precision, bias, and the ability to correctly identify the underlying subgroup structure of the proposed methods relative to BCF-IV. The results show that the non-Bayesian methods perform competitively across the considered simulation settings, with performance improving for larger sample sizes and moderately large treatment effects, while reducing computational runtime. We apply our new methods by revisiting an empirical study that examines the effect of prompt admission to intensive care units (ICU) on 28-day mortality across 48 UK National Health Service hospitals. While previous work finds no significant overall treatment effect, we investigate whether subgroups of patients may benefit more from prompt ICU admission.
ER -