The Unprecedented Influenza Epidemic of 2024/2025: Overshadowing the COVID‐19 Winter Wave and Exploring Viral Interference
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In winter 2024/2025, one of the most severe U.S. influenza epidemics since 2017, with 82 million illnesses and ~ 130,000 deaths, eclipsed a comparatively subdued SARS-CoV-2 wave (~ 20 million infections, ~540,000 hospitalizations, ~63,000 COVID-19 deaths), a hypothesis supported by existing CDC data and virological models. HYPOTHESIS: Influenza's robust interferon response might have contributed to suppression of SARS-CoV-2 replication, creating an antiviral environment that delayed COVID-19's winter surge. EVIDENCE: In vitro studies demonstrate influenza interference with SARS-CoV-2, reversible by oseltamivir, supporting this hypothesis. Thus, the decline in influenza activity in spring 2025 may have contributed to the observed increase in SARS-CoV-2 hospitalizations, driven by the NB.1.8.1 variant, a JN.1 derivative with enhanced transmissibility and reduced neutralization. Although this did not evolve into a pandemic-scale wave, the resultant burden on healthcare services was clinically meaningful. Alternative explanations, including behavioral changes and Omicron-induced herd immunity, are considered but less compelling. IMPLICATION: The global health implications are critical: lapsed COVID-19 preparedness, limited surveillance, and low vaccine uptake threaten effective responses. RECOMMANDATIONS: We advocate enhanced surveillance, adopting wastewater monitoring as demonstrated in the U.S., and integrated vaccination campaigns with combined influenza-COVID-19 vaccines, currently in phase III trials, to boost immunity. Resource allocation, informed by the 2024/2025 hospital overload, is essential to manage surges. This article underscores the need for global coordination to understand viral interference and prepare for shifting respiratory virus dynamics, offering actionable strategies to mitigate future epidemics, including those caused by other viruses.
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BibTeX
@article{davido2026unprecedented,
title = {{The Unprecedented Influenza Epidemic of 2024/2025: Overshadowing the COVID‐19 Winter Wave and Exploring Viral Interference}},
author = {Benjamin Davido},
journal = {Immunity, Inflammation and Disease},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1002/iid3.70300},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05851912v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The Unprecedented Influenza Epidemic of 2024/2025: Overshadowing the COVID‐19 Winter Wave and Exploring Viral Interference
AU - Benjamin Davido
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/04
JO - Immunity, Inflammation and Disease
DO - 10.1002/iid3.70300
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05851912v1
AB - BACKGROUND: In winter 2024/2025, one of the most severe U.S. influenza epidemics since 2017, with 82 million illnesses and ~ 130,000 deaths, eclipsed a comparatively subdued SARS-CoV-2 wave (~ 20 million infections, ~540,000 hospitalizations, ~63,000 COVID-19 deaths), a hypothesis supported by existing CDC data and virological models. HYPOTHESIS: Influenza's robust interferon response might have contributed to suppression of SARS-CoV-2 replication, creating an antiviral environment that delayed COVID-19's winter surge. EVIDENCE: In vitro studies demonstrate influenza interference with SARS-CoV-2, reversible by oseltamivir, supporting this hypothesis. Thus, the decline in influenza activity in spring 2025 may have contributed to the observed increase in SARS-CoV-2 hospitalizations, driven by the NB.1.8.1 variant, a JN.1 derivative with enhanced transmissibility and reduced neutralization. Although this did not evolve into a pandemic-scale wave, the resultant burden on healthcare services was clinically meaningful. Alternative explanations, including behavioral changes and Omicron-induced herd immunity, are considered but less compelling. IMPLICATION: The global health implications are critical: lapsed COVID-19 preparedness, limited surveillance, and low vaccine uptake threaten effective responses. RECOMMANDATIONS: We advocate enhanced surveillance, adopting wastewater monitoring as demonstrated in the U.S., and integrated vaccination campaigns with combined influenza-COVID-19 vaccines, currently in phase III trials, to boost immunity. Resource allocation, informed by the 2024/2025 hospital overload, is essential to manage surges. This article underscores the need for global coordination to understand viral interference and prepare for shifting respiratory virus dynamics, offering actionable strategies to mitigate future epidemics, including those caused by other viruses.
SN - 2050-4527
ER -