What drives the uphill expansion of cultivated land in hilly regions? Nonlinear responses and threshold effects from the Jiangnan hilly region, China
- 1School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
- 2School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China; Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment, Nanchang 330022, China; Corresponding author at: School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China
- 3School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China; Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Natural Disaster Monitoring, Early Warning and Assessment, Nanchang 330022, China
Abstract
Amid the severe challenges to global food security and sustainable development, changes in cultivated land resources have become a key issue in global development research. However, in the context of rapid urbanization, high-quality cultivated land in hilly regions continues to be lost, forcing agricultural activities onto marginal lands. This has led to the phenomenon of uphill expansion of cultivated land, which affects both agricultural sustainability and ecological security. This research characterizes the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land expansion in the Jiangnan hilly region of China, revealing a shift from low-gradient areas to increasing encroachment into medium- and high-gradient regions. The results show that while cultivated land continues to expand into higher slopes, the process slows significantly beyond a 10° slope due to topographic limitations. To explore the underlying driving mechanisms, a Geographically Weighted Random Forest model is employed to examine the spatial heterogeneity of these driving factors. The findings indicate that net income per farmer is the primary driver, reflecting the dominant role of farmers' economic decisions. Additionally, built-up land expansion area exerts a spatial compression effect, driving cultivated land into steeper areas. Ultimately, the uphill expansion of cultivated land is a nonlinear response to socio-economic pressures exceeding the region's ecological carrying capacity. This study provides policy implications for hilly regions, suggesting the integration of slope-based ecological constraints within the “land occupation–compensation balance” framework to promote sustainable land use.
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BibTeX
@article{weng2026what,
title = {{What drives the uphill expansion of cultivated land in hilly regions? Nonlinear responses and threshold effects from the Jiangnan hilly region, China}},
author = {Yingying WENG and Xinghua FENG and Liting XU and Fanqi MENG and Yexi ZHONG and Qiyue Li},
journal = {Ecological Indicators},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115724},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115724},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - What drives the uphill expansion of cultivated land in hilly regions? Nonlinear responses and threshold effects from the Jiangnan hilly region, China
AU - Yingying WENG
AU - Xinghua FENG
AU - Liting XU
AU - Fanqi MENG
AU - Yexi ZHONG
AU - Qiyue Li
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Ecological Indicators
DO - 10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115724
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2026.115724
AB - Amid the severe challenges to global food security and sustainable development, changes in cultivated land resources have become a key issue in global development research. However, in the context of rapid urbanization, high-quality cultivated land in hilly regions continues to be lost, forcing agricultural activities onto marginal lands. This has led to the phenomenon of uphill expansion of cultivated land, which affects both agricultural sustainability and ecological security. This research characterizes the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land expansion in the Jiangnan hilly region of China, revealing a shift from low-gradient areas to increasing encroachment into medium- and high-gradient regions. The results show that while cultivated land continues to expand into higher slopes, the process slows significantly beyond a 10° slope due to topographic limitations. To explore the underlying driving mechanisms, a Geographically Weighted Random Forest model is employed to examine the spatial heterogeneity of these driving factors. The findings indicate that net income per farmer is the primary driver, reflecting the dominant role of farmers' economic decisions. Additionally, built-up land expansion area exerts a spatial compression effect, driving cultivated land into steeper areas. Ultimately, the uphill expansion of cultivated land is a nonlinear response to socio-economic pressures exceeding the region's ecological carrying capacity. This study provides policy implications for hilly regions, suggesting the integration of slope-based ecological constraints within the “land occupation–compensation balance” framework to promote sustainable land use.
SN - 1470-160X
SN - 1872-7034
ER -