Dissociating certainty and uncertainty for passengers of autonomous vehicles: evidence against a perfect inverse relationship.
- 1Department of Industrial Design, Eindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, Netherlands.
- 2Integrated Vehicle Safety, TNO, Helmond, Netherlands.
Abstract
This study examines whether psychological uncertainty can be understood as the inverse of certainty in the context of fully automated vehicle (AV) passengers. Using a large-scale crowd-sourced experiment (N = 1,437 participants from 84 countries), participants viewed 3D simulated driving scenarios and rated their perceived certainty and uncertainty regarding an upcoming lane change. A linear mixed-effects model was used to analyze the relationship while controlling for repeated measures induced biases and individual variability. Results show a significant negative relationship between certainty and uncertainty (B = -0.320, p < 0.01), indicating that higher certainty is associated with lower uncertainty. However, the magnitude of this relationship deviates strongly from a perfect inverse (B = -1), demonstrating that the constructs are not simply opposites. Instead, certainty and uncertainty appear to function as partially independent psychological dimensions that can coexist. These findings challenge the common assumption underlying bipolar measurement scales and support the use of unipolar approaches when assessing subjective uncertainty. The results have implications for human-automation interaction design, suggesting that reducing uncertainty does not necessarily guarantee increased certainty. A more nuanced understanding of both constructs can contribute to improving trust, user experience, and acceptance of automated driving systems.
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BibTeX
@article{franssen2026dissociating,
title = {{Dissociating certainty and uncertainty for passengers of autonomous vehicles: evidence against a perfect inverse relationship.}},
author = {Mervyn Franssen and Erik D van der Spek and Marieke H Martens},
journal = {Frontiers in psychology},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2026.1917625},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42996538},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Dissociating certainty and uncertainty for passengers of autonomous vehicles: evidence against a perfect inverse relationship.
AU - Mervyn Franssen
AU - Erik D van der Spek
AU - Marieke H Martens
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Frontiers in psychology
DO - 10.3389/fpsyg.2026.1917625
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42996538
AB - This study examines whether psychological uncertainty can be understood as the inverse of certainty in the context of fully automated vehicle (AV) passengers. Using a large-scale crowd-sourced experiment (N = 1,437 participants from 84 countries), participants viewed 3D simulated driving scenarios and rated their perceived certainty and uncertainty regarding an upcoming lane change. A linear mixed-effects model was used to analyze the relationship while controlling for repeated measures induced biases and individual variability. Results show a significant negative relationship between certainty and uncertainty (B = -0.320, p < 0.01), indicating that higher certainty is associated with lower uncertainty. However, the magnitude of this relationship deviates strongly from a perfect inverse (B = -1), demonstrating that the constructs are not simply opposites. Instead, certainty and uncertainty appear to function as partially independent psychological dimensions that can coexist. These findings challenge the common assumption underlying bipolar measurement scales and support the use of unipolar approaches when assessing subjective uncertainty. The results have implications for human-automation interaction design, suggesting that reducing uncertainty does not necessarily guarantee increased certainty. A more nuanced understanding of both constructs can contribute to improving trust, user experience, and acceptance of automated driving systems.
SN - 1664-1078
ER -