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Peer-reviewedCC BYCommunications Earth & Environment

Increasing irrigation demand coincides with declining irrigation development potential under climate change

  • Boning Sun1
  • Rong Liu1
  • Xin Xing1
  • Bernard A. Engel2
  • En Hua1
  • Xinxueqi Han1
  • Xinchun Cao3
  • Shikun Sun1
  • Yubao Wang1
  1. 1Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University
  2. 2Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Purdue University
  3. 3College of Agricultural Science and Engineering, Hohai University
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Abstract

Climate change and socioeconomic development are increasing pressure on global food systems while intensifying agricultural water stress. Here, we develop a global framework integrating an irrigation requirement index and an irrigation development suitability index to assess irrigation demand, development potential, and grain yield gains from irrigation. Using observations from 2011–2020, ten climate models and three future climate scenarios were used to simulate water requirements and yields of five major crops for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Irrigation demand increased while irrigation development potential declined across most regions. By 2050, 25–29% of the global five-crop area is projected to experience high irrigation requirements, whereas less than 25% remains highly suitable for irrigation development. Irrigation could increase global grain production by 325–372 Mt and reduce up to 85.1% of the projected food gap. These findings highlight growing constraints on irrigation expansion while demonstrating its continued importance for food security.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{sun2026increasing,
  title = {{Increasing irrigation demand coincides with declining irrigation development potential under climate change}},
  author = {Boning Sun and Rong Liu and Xin Xing and Bernard A. Engel and En Hua and Xinxueqi Han and Xinchun Cao and Shikun Sun and Yubao Wang},
  journal = {Communications Earth \& Environment},
  year = {2026},
  month = jun,
  doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03775-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03775-7},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Increasing irrigation demand coincides with declining irrigation development potential under climate change
AU  - Boning Sun
AU  - Rong Liu
AU  - Xin Xing
AU  - Bernard A. Engel
AU  - En Hua
AU  - Xinxueqi Han
AU  - Xinchun Cao
AU  - Shikun Sun
AU  - Yubao Wang
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/01
JO  - Communications Earth & Environment
DO  - 10.1038/s43247-026-03775-7
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03775-7
AB  - Climate change and socioeconomic development are increasing pressure on global food systems while intensifying agricultural water stress. Here, we develop a global framework integrating an irrigation requirement index and an irrigation development suitability index to assess irrigation demand, development potential, and grain yield gains from irrigation. Using observations from 2011–2020, ten climate models and three future climate scenarios were used to simulate water requirements and yields of five major crops for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Irrigation demand increased while irrigation development potential declined across most regions. By 2050, 25–29% of the global five-crop area is projected to experience high irrigation requirements, whereas less than 25% remains highly suitable for irrigation development. Irrigation could increase global grain production by 325–372 Mt and reduce up to 85.1% of the projected food gap. These findings highlight growing constraints on irrigation expansion while demonstrating its continued importance for food security.
SN  - 2662-4435
ER  -