Skip to content
DraconiticResearch
Search Sources API
203,203 studies31 sourcesUpdated 29 min ago
Peer-reviewedCC BYBiology letters

When dates disagree: radiocarbon and sighting-based models reveal range-wide variability in great auk (Pinguinus impennis) extinction estimates

  • Lucia S. Snyderman1,2,3
  • Kevin R. Burgio4
  • Arthur W. Anderson5
  • Olivia L. Olson6
  • Samuel T. Turvey2
  • Alexis M. Mychajliw3,7
7 affiliations
  1. 1School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
  2. 2Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, London, UK
  3. 3Department of Biology, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT, USA
  4. 4Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Amherst, MA, USA
  5. 5School of Criminology, Society, and Politics, University of New England, Biddeford, ME, USA
  6. 6Lake Champlain Maritime Museum, Vergennes, VT, USA
  7. 7Program in Environmental Studies, Middlebury College, Middlebury, VT, USA
Read full textPDFDOICite

Abstract

Methods for inferring extinction are well established for events that either occurred on millennial time scales (e.g. the late Quaternary) or are unfolding in the present. However, these methods employ distinct data types inherent to palaeontological or neontological settings, yielding a potentially disjointed view of the extinction process. We leveraged the historical extinction of the great auk (Pinguinus impennis)—a large, flightless seabird native to the Atlantic—as a test case to assess the effects of using varied data types (286 quality-scored occurrences) and models (Gaussian-resampled inverse-weighted McInerny, Solow and Beet) in inferring extinction across centennial time scales. While the last confirmed great auk was killed in 1844 CE in Iceland, the dynamics of species-wide range collapse in response to differing harvest practices have not been explored. Our sighting-based estimates suggest the species may have persisted a decade longer (1860 CE) in the Northwest Atlantic, highlighting the need for future research on this understudied portion of their range. Radiocarbon-based models estimate extinction later (post-2000 CE) across the species’ range, suggesting that inherent uncertainties in radiocarbon dates and their calibration—particularly for marine samples—may constrain their applicability for detailing extinction processes on conservation-relevant time scales.

Related

  1. Radiocarbon dating of bird and mammal eye lenses reveals long-term chronology
    E. Hasegawa, J. Matsubayashi, K. Miura +3
    bioRxivPreprintAll rights reservedFull textZoology & animal behaviourbioRxiv
  2. Stored carbohydrates buffer Bomb and Suess radiocarbon effects in maple leaves across a 65-year Ottawa region record
    Leonard I. Wassenaar, Carley A. Crann, Sarah Murseli
    Scientific ReportsPeer-reviewedCC BY-NC-ND 4.0Full textEvolutionary biologyCrossref
  3. Walrus population-specific marine reservoir offsets (ΔR) for calibration of radiocarbon dates: Implications for Arctic chronologies and medieval trade.
    Bente Philippsen, Katrien Dierickx, Mohsen Falahati-Anbaran +5
    The HolocenePeer-reviewedCC BYFull text1 citedEvolutionary biologyEurope PMCPMC
  4. Why variant effect predictors and multiplexed assays agree and disagree
    Benjamin Livesey, Joseph A. Marsh
    Nature CommunicationsPeer-reviewedCC BYFull text6 citedGenetics & genomicsOpenAlex
  5. Radiocarbon dating of wooden beams at Herodium palace-fortress: Modeling tree-felling events and their implications on site chronology
    Lior Regev, Roi Porat, Avner Botosh +5
    PLOS OnePeer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Plant biologyPLOS

Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{snyderman2026when,
  title = {{When dates disagree: radiocarbon and sighting-based models reveal range-wide variability in great auk (Pinguinus impennis) extinction estimates}},
  author = {Lucia S. Snyderman and Kevin R. Burgio and Arthur W. Anderson and Olivia L. Olson and Samuel T. Turvey and Alexis M. Mychajliw},
  journal = {Biology letters},
  year = {2026},
  month = nov,
  doi = {10.1098/rsbl.2026.0223},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13730643},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - When dates disagree: radiocarbon and sighting-based models reveal range-wide variability in great auk (Pinguinus impennis) extinction estimates
AU  - Lucia S. Snyderman
AU  - Kevin R. Burgio
AU  - Arthur W. Anderson
AU  - Olivia L. Olson
AU  - Samuel T. Turvey
AU  - Alexis M. Mychajliw
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/11/04
JO  - Biology letters
DO  - 10.1098/rsbl.2026.0223
UR  - https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13730643
AB  - Methods for inferring extinction are well established for events that either occurred on millennial time scales (e.g. the late Quaternary) or are unfolding in the present. However, these methods employ distinct data types inherent to palaeontological or neontological settings, yielding a potentially disjointed view of the extinction process. We leveraged the historical extinction of the great auk (Pinguinus impennis)—a large, flightless seabird native to the Atlantic—as a test case to assess the effects of using varied data types (286 quality-scored occurrences) and models (Gaussian-resampled inverse-weighted McInerny, Solow and Beet) in inferring extinction across centennial time scales. While the last confirmed great auk was killed in 1844 CE in Iceland, the dynamics of species-wide range collapse in response to differing harvest practices have not been explored. Our sighting-based estimates suggest the species may have persisted a decade longer (1860 CE) in the Northwest Atlantic, highlighting the need for future research on this understudied portion of their range. Radiocarbon-based models estimate extinction later (post-2000 CE) across the species’ range, suggesting that inherent uncertainties in radiocarbon dates and their calibration—particularly for marine samples—may constrain their applicability for detailing extinction processes on conservation-relevant time scales.
SN  - 1744-9561
SN  - 1744-957X
ER  -