Can multi-glacier moraine analysis constrain paleoclimate reconstructions? Evidence from 3D glacier modeling in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia
Abstract
Glacier moraines are widely used as proxies for past climate, as they are interpreted to reflect near-equilibrium glacier extents. However, a single glacier geometry can arise from multiple temperature-precipitation combinations and their quantification relies on glacier modeling that introduce additional uncertainties. Here, we investigate how this non-uniqueness can be constrained from a 3D full-Stokes ice-flow model (Elmer/Ice), applied to neighboring coeval glaciers in the Zongo-Charquini area of the Bolivian Cordillera Real. Using synthetic experiments, in which Temperature-Precipitation (T-P) anomaly curves are derived from several glacier extents generated under prescribed climate conditions, we show that differences in glacier geometry and hypsometry cannot be used to distinguish between temperature and precipitation conditions. However, we also show that glacier thickness may provide a way to dissociate temperature and precipitation but with a limited sensitivity that would require highly accurate past volume estimates to be useful in practice, which is often not feasible. Using real moraine records, our results show that single-glacier reconstructions are strongly influenced by both, methodological choice (melt model), and site-specific uncertainties, resulting in a range of T-P anomaly curves describing the same climate. In this context, using a multi-glacier framework allows to better assess the temperature-precipitation condition and its associated uncertainties.
Using this approach combined with independent tree-ring and hydrological lake-balance precipitation reconstruction in the region, we estimate temperature anomalies of -0.8 ± 0.3 • C for the Little Ice Age and -1.3 ± 0.4
Versions
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BibTeX
@misc{reyes2026multiglacier,
title = {{Can multi-glacier moraine analysis constrain paleoclimate reconstructions? Evidence from 3D glacier modeling in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia}},
author = {Nicolás Acuña Reyes and Léo Martin and Adrien Gilbert and Vincent Jomelli and Antoine Rabatel and Simon Filhol and Deborah Verfaillie and Pierre-Henri Blard and Jérôme Lavé},
howpublished = {HAL},
year = {2026},
month = may,
doi = {10.5194/egusphere-2026-2638},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05774923v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Can multi-glacier moraine analysis constrain paleoclimate reconstructions? Evidence from 3D glacier modeling in the Cordillera Real, Bolivia
AU - Nicolás Acuña Reyes
AU - Léo Martin
AU - Adrien Gilbert
AU - Vincent Jomelli
AU - Antoine Rabatel
AU - Simon Filhol
AU - Deborah Verfaillie
AU - Pierre-Henri Blard
AU - Jérôme Lavé
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/05/26
PB - HAL
DO - 10.5194/egusphere-2026-2638
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05774923v1
AB - Glacier moraines are widely used as proxies for past climate, as they are interpreted to reflect near-equilibrium glacier extents. However, a single glacier geometry can arise from multiple temperature-precipitation combinations and their quantification relies on glacier modeling that introduce additional uncertainties. Here, we investigate how this non-uniqueness can be constrained from a 3D full-Stokes ice-flow model (Elmer/Ice), applied to neighboring coeval glaciers in the Zongo-Charquini area of the Bolivian Cordillera Real. Using synthetic experiments, in which Temperature-Precipitation (T-P) anomaly curves are derived from several glacier extents generated under prescribed climate conditions, we show that differences in glacier geometry and hypsometry cannot be used to distinguish between temperature and precipitation conditions. However, we also show that glacier thickness may provide a way to dissociate temperature and precipitation but with a limited sensitivity that would require highly accurate past volume estimates to be useful in practice, which is often not feasible. Using real moraine records, our results show that single-glacier reconstructions are strongly influenced by both, methodological choice (melt model), and site-specific uncertainties, resulting in a range of T-P anomaly curves describing the same climate. In this context, using a multi-glacier framework allows to better assess the temperature-precipitation condition and its associated uncertainties. Using this approach combined with independent tree-ring and hydrological lake-balance precipitation reconstruction in the region, we estimate temperature anomalies of -0.8 ± 0.3 • C for the Little Ice Age and -1.3 ± 0.4
ER -