Sociodemographic factors associated with anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia-Ukraine war among workers in Latin America.
10 affiliations
- 1Universidad de Huánuco., Huánuco, Perú.
- 2Universidad Privada Antenor Orrego, Piura, Trujillo, Peru.
- 3Hospital de la Amistad Perú Corea Santa Rosa II-2, Piura, Peru.
- 4Dirección Provincial de Salud de Loja, Ministerio de Salud Pública, Loja, Ecuador.
- 5Asociación Médica de Investigación y Servicios en Salud, Lima, Peru.
- 6Escuela de Posgrado, Universidad Internacional Iberoamericana, Campeche, Mexico.
- 7University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.
- 8Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Tunja, Colombia.
- 9Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, Tunja, Colombia. [email protected].
- 10Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá, Bogotá, Colombia. [email protected].
Abstract
Introduction
The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted labor markets in Latin America, a region characterized by high informality, socioeconomic inequality, and uneven social protection. Shortly afterward, the Russia-Ukraine war generated global uncertainty regarding inflation, commodity prices, supply chains, and economic stability. However, the extent to which geographically distant armed conflicts are perceived as potential labor-related threats by workers in structurally vulnerable regions remains insufficiently understood.Objective
To identify sociodemographic factors associated with self-reported high anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia-Ukraine war among workers in Latin America.Methodology
A cross-sectional, analytical, multicenter secondary analysis was conducted among workers in Latin American countries during the first weeks of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Participants were asked about their perceptions of the potential impact of that conflict on their work, reflecting an anticipatory and perception-based outcome rather than direct war exposure or objectively measured labor-market change. High anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability was defined as reporting "quite a lot" or "a lot" on a five-category perception item. Descriptive and analytical statistics were performed.Results
Among 1,118 workers, 25.2% perceived quite a lot of labor-related impact from the Russia-Ukraine war, and 34.6% perceived a lot of impact, corresponding to 59.8% of the analytical sample being classified as having high anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability. Regarding work expectations, 33.3% anticipated a decrease in work, 27.5% expected work to remain the same, 25.9% reported that they could lose their job, and 13.3% anticipated an increase in work. A total of 62.0% anticipated that salaries would decrease for most workers. In the main adjusted model, male sex was associated with a lower prevalence of high anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability (aPR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.69-0.85; p < 0.001). Age and country of residence were not independently associated with the outcome.Conclusion
A high proportion of surveyed workers reported anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia-Ukraine war. The most consistent sociodemographic association was observed for sex. These findings should not be interpreted as evidence of objective labor-market effects, but as an exploratory assessment of subjective labor-related risk appraisal during an early period of geopolitical uncertainty.
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BibTeX
@article{mejia2026sociodemographic,
title = {{Sociodemographic factors associated with anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia-Ukraine war among workers in Latin America.}},
author = {Christian R Mejia and Victor Serna-Alarcón and Jamil Cedillo-Balcázar and Scherlli E Chamorro-Espinoza and Jaime A Yáñez and Neal M Davies and Leonel Vega-Perez and Camilo Vega-Useche},
journal = {Conflict and health},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.1186/s13031-026-00823-z},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42958332},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Sociodemographic factors associated with anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia-Ukraine war among workers in Latin America.
AU - Christian R Mejia
AU - Victor Serna-Alarcón
AU - Jamil Cedillo-Balcázar
AU - Scherlli E Chamorro-Espinoza
AU - Jaime A Yáñez
AU - Neal M Davies
AU - Leonel Vega-Perez
AU - Camilo Vega-Useche
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/01
JO - Conflict and health
DO - 10.1186/s13031-026-00823-z
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42958332
AB - Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted labor markets in Latin America, a region characterized by high informality, socioeconomic inequality, and uneven social protection. Shortly afterward, the Russia-Ukraine war generated global uncertainty regarding inflation, commodity prices, supply chains, and economic stability. However, the extent to which geographically distant armed conflicts are perceived as potential labor-related threats by workers in structurally vulnerable regions remains insufficiently understood.Objective To identify sociodemographic factors associated with self-reported high anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia-Ukraine war among workers in Latin America.Methodology A cross-sectional, analytical, multicenter secondary analysis was conducted among workers in Latin American countries during the first weeks of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Participants were asked about their perceptions of the potential impact of that conflict on their work, reflecting an anticipatory and perception-based outcome rather than direct war exposure or objectively measured labor-market change. High anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability was defined as reporting "quite a lot" or "a lot" on a five-category perception item. Descriptive and analytical statistics were performed.Results Among 1,118 workers, 25.2% perceived quite a lot of labor-related impact from the Russia-Ukraine war, and 34.6% perceived a lot of impact, corresponding to 59.8% of the analytical sample being classified as having high anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability. Regarding work expectations, 33.3% anticipated a decrease in work, 27.5% expected work to remain the same, 25.9% reported that they could lose their job, and 13.3% anticipated an increase in work. A total of 62.0% anticipated that salaries would decrease for most workers. In the main adjusted model, male sex was associated with a lower prevalence of high anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability (aPR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.69-0.85; p < 0.001). Age and country of residence were not independently associated with the outcome.Conclusion A high proportion of surveyed workers reported anticipatory perceived labor vulnerability related to the Russia-Ukraine war. The most consistent sociodemographic association was observed for sex. These findings should not be interpreted as evidence of objective labor-market effects, but as an exploratory assessment of subjective labor-related risk appraisal during an early period of geopolitical uncertainty.
SN - 1752-1505
ER -