Forecast for the detectability of patchy hydrogen reionization in WEAVE-QSO measurements of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum at redshift z ≥ 4
Abstract
We present the first detailed forecasts for the detectability of patchy hydrogen reionization in the one-dimensional Lyα forest power spectrum to be measured by the WEAVE-QSO survey. Using the Sherwood-relics reionization simulations and a WEAVE-QSO survey configuration, we generate mock spectra in four redshift bins, z=4.0,4.2,4.4, and $4.6$, in which relic ionization and temperature fluctuations from patchy hydrogen reionization enhance the Lyα forest power spectrum on large scales (i.e., at wavenumber k∼ 10−3,s km−1). Our Lyα forest pipeline forecasts the power spectrum covariance by considering sample size, spectral resolution, noise subtraction, continuum placement, metal contamination, and damping wings from high-column density absorbers. Applying our covariance forecast within a Bayesian parameter inference framework, we find that the signature of patchy hydrogen reionization should be detectable at a significance of ≃ 4.5σ. The forthcoming WEAVE-QSO 1D power spectrum measurements should therefore be able to directly detect and characterize the large-scale relic imprint of patchy hydrogen reionization in the Lyα forest power spectrum at z≥ 4.
Versions
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BibTeX
@misc{ma2026forecast,
title = {{Forecast for the detectability of patchy hydrogen reionization in WEAVE-QSO measurements of the Lyman-$α$ forest power spectrum at redshift $z \geq 4$}},
author = {Ke Ma and James S Bolton and Vid Iršič and Prakash Gaikwad and Matthew M Pieri and Trystyn A.M Berg and Rajeshwari Dutta and Matteo Fossati and Michele Fumagalli and Emanuel Gafton and Ignasi Pérez Ràfols and Francesco Pistis},
howpublished = {HAL},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2608.13153},
eprint = {2608.13153},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05758446v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Forecast for the detectability of patchy hydrogen reionization in WEAVE-QSO measurements of the Lyman-α forest power spectrum at redshift z ≥ 4
AU - Ke Ma
AU - James S Bolton
AU - Vid Iršič
AU - Prakash Gaikwad
AU - Matthew M Pieri
AU - Trystyn A.M Berg
AU - Rajeshwari Dutta
AU - Matteo Fossati
AU - Michele Fumagalli
AU - Emanuel Gafton
AU - Ignasi Pérez Ràfols
AU - Francesco Pistis
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/22
PB - HAL
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2608.13153
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05758446v1
AB - We present the first detailed forecasts for the detectability of patchy hydrogen reionization in the one-dimensional Lyα forest power spectrum to be measured by the WEAVE-QSO survey. Using the Sherwood-relics reionization simulations and a WEAVE-QSO survey configuration, we generate mock spectra in four redshift bins, z=4.0,4.2,4.4, and $4.6$, in which relic ionization and temperature fluctuations from patchy hydrogen reionization enhance the Lyα forest power spectrum on large scales (i.e., at wavenumber k∼ 10^−3,s km^−1). Our Lyα forest pipeline forecasts the power spectrum covariance by considering sample size, spectral resolution, noise subtraction, continuum placement, metal contamination, and damping wings from high-column density absorbers. Applying our covariance forecast within a Bayesian parameter inference framework, we find that the signature of patchy hydrogen reionization should be detectable at a significance of ≃ 4.5σ. The forthcoming WEAVE-QSO 1D power spectrum measurements should therefore be able to directly detect and characterize the large-scale relic imprint of patchy hydrogen reionization in the Lyα forest power spectrum at z≥ 4.
ER -