Modelling present and future sperm whale habitat in the southwest Indian Ocean
Abstract
Global climate change and anthropogenic stressors, such as noise and fisheries, are known to affect the spatial and temporal distribution of organisms in oceans, including the largest and most mobile species, such as cetaceans. However, there is limited understanding of how populations may be affected by future climatic conditions. Sperm whales Physeter macrocephalus are a cosmopolitan, sexually segregated species. Over the past 2 decades, multiple surveys have been conducted in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) to assess the spatial distribution of cetaceans, including sperm whales. Using ensemble ecological niche modelling, we investigated current habitat suitability for sperm whales, incorporating multiple data sources across an area spanning ~30° of latitude. Data were also used to forecast habitat suitability in relation to multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios (optimistic: SSP1-2.6; intermediate: SSP2-4.5; pessimistic: SSP5-8.5). Slope was identified as the most influential environmental variable for habitat suitability (26 %), highlighting topographical features such as shelf edges and seamounts. All climatic scenarios showed a decrease in suitable habitat (SSP1-2.6: -40%; SSP2-4.5: -37%; SSP5-8.5: -20 %). However, potential 'long-term core habitat' for sperm whales in the SWIO was identified based on areas of high habitat suitability, with the northern edges of the Mascarene Plateau, northwest of Madagascar and around oceanic islands all emerging as key areas. Our study highlights the value of using multiple data sources for presence-only habitat suitability modelling tools and to inform targeted and long-term research and conservation efforts.
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BibTeX
@article{lomas2026modelling,
title = {{Modelling present and future sperm whale habitat in the southwest Indian Ocean}},
author = {Alexander Connor Lomas and Matthew J Witt and Thomas Webber and Franceso Garzon and Violaine Dulau-Drouot and Jeremy J Kiszka and Sophie Laran and Tim P Lewis and Sheena Talma and Shaama Sandooyea and Laura Meller and Salvatore Cerchio and Adrian Fajeau and Anjara Saloma and Svetlana Barteneva-Vitry and Ella Vicky Nancy and Kirsten Freja Young},
journal = {Endangered Species Research},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3354/esr01538},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05848678v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Modelling present and future sperm whale habitat in the southwest Indian Ocean
AU - Alexander Connor Lomas
AU - Matthew J Witt
AU - Thomas Webber
AU - Franceso Garzon
AU - Violaine Dulau-Drouot
AU - Jeremy J Kiszka
AU - Sophie Laran
AU - Tim P Lewis
AU - Sheena Talma
AU - Shaama Sandooyea
AU - Laura Meller
AU - Salvatore Cerchio
AU - Adrian Fajeau
AU - Anjara Saloma
AU - Svetlana Barteneva-Vitry
AU - Ella Vicky Nancy
AU - Kirsten Freja Young
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/08
JO - Endangered Species Research
DO - 10.3354/esr01538
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05848678v1
AB - Global climate change and anthropogenic stressors, such as noise and fisheries, are known to affect the spatial and temporal distribution of organisms in oceans, including the largest and most mobile species, such as cetaceans. However, there is limited understanding of how populations may be affected by future climatic conditions. Sperm whales Physeter macrocephalus are a cosmopolitan, sexually segregated species. Over the past 2 decades, multiple surveys have been conducted in the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) to assess the spatial distribution of cetaceans, including sperm whales. Using ensemble ecological niche modelling, we investigated current habitat suitability for sperm whales, incorporating multiple data sources across an area spanning ~30° of latitude. Data were also used to forecast habitat suitability in relation to multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) climate scenarios (optimistic: SSP1-2.6; intermediate: SSP2-4.5; pessimistic: SSP5-8.5). Slope was identified as the most influential environmental variable for habitat suitability (26 %), highlighting topographical features such as shelf edges and seamounts. All climatic scenarios showed a decrease in suitable habitat (SSP1-2.6: -40%; SSP2-4.5: -37%; SSP5-8.5: -20 %). However, potential 'long-term core habitat' for sperm whales in the SWIO was identified based on areas of high habitat suitability, with the northern edges of the Mascarene Plateau, northwest of Madagascar and around oceanic islands all emerging as key areas. Our study highlights the value of using multiple data sources for presence-only habitat suitability modelling tools and to inform targeted and long-term research and conservation efforts.
SN - 1863-5407
SN - 1613-4796
ER -