Highly resolved projections of climate and vegetation indicate major changes in northern Scandinavia: Implications for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation
6 affiliations
- 1Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, P.O. Box 463, 40530 Göteborg, Sweden
- 2Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 22362 Lund, Sweden
- 3Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI, 60176 Norrköping, Sweden
- 4Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, P.O. Box 460, 40530 Göteborg, Sweden
- 5Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, Horvatovac 95, 10000 Zagreb, Croatia
- 6Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden
Abstract
Through Arctic amplification, global climate change is projected to disproportionally affect high-latitude environments. Additionally, the geographical heterogeneity and complex terrain of mountains promote climate-driven ecological change on fine spatial scales. We used a high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate model (HCLIM) and a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to explore mid-twentieth century implications of continued global warming for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation in the mountainous, northern parts of Scandinavia. Several indicators relevant for stakeholders were investigated: length of snow season, crossings of zero temperature, rain-on-snow events, as well as tree and forest line shifts. Comparing results from the high-resolution (3 km) climate model with results from a coarser-scale (12 km) model commonly used for climate change assessments revealed that ecologically and societally significant patterns become apparent only at higher resolution. Large changes are projected among all investigated indicators for the present century, and we explore their societal implications.
Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-026-02423-w.
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BibTeX
@article{pleijel2026highly,
title = {{Highly resolved projections of climate and vegetation indicate major changes in northern Scandinavia: Implications for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation}},
author = {Håkan Pleijel and Fredrik Lagergren and Erik Kjellström and Petter Lind and Paul A. Miller and Robert G. Björk and Tinja Olenius and Danijel Belušić and Mats P. Björkman and David Lindstedt and Gunhild Rosqvist and Camilla Andersson},
journal = {Ambio},
year = {2026},
month = may,
doi = {10.1007/s13280-026-02423-w},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-026-02423-w},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Highly resolved projections of climate and vegetation indicate major changes in northern Scandinavia: Implications for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation
AU - Håkan Pleijel
AU - Fredrik Lagergren
AU - Erik Kjellström
AU - Petter Lind
AU - Paul A. Miller
AU - Robert G. Björk
AU - Tinja Olenius
AU - Danijel Belušić
AU - Mats P. Björkman
AU - David Lindstedt
AU - Gunhild Rosqvist
AU - Camilla Andersson
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/05/22
JO - Ambio
DO - 10.1007/s13280-026-02423-w
UR - https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-026-02423-w
AB - Through Arctic amplification, global climate change is projected to disproportionally affect high-latitude environments. Additionally, the geographical heterogeneity and complex terrain of mountains promote climate-driven ecological change on fine spatial scales. We used a high-resolution convection-permitting regional climate model (HCLIM) and a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) to explore mid-twentieth century implications of continued global warming for reindeer herding, tourism and nature conservation in the mountainous, northern parts of Scandinavia. Several indicators relevant for stakeholders were investigated: length of snow season, crossings of zero temperature, rain-on-snow events, as well as tree and forest line shifts. Comparing results from the high-resolution (3 km) climate model with results from a coarser-scale (12 km) model commonly used for climate change assessments revealed that ecologically and societally significant patterns become apparent only at higher resolution. Large changes are projected among all investigated indicators for the present century, and we explore their societal implications. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-026-02423-w.
SN - 0044-7447
SN - 1654-7209
ER -