Fisher Forecasts for Cosmological Yields from 3 × 2 point Analysis of the Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Imaging Survey
5 affiliations
- 1The Ohio State University
- 2Stony Brook University
- 3University of Arizona
- 4Northeastern University
- 5California Institute of Technology
Abstract
The High Latitude Imaging Survey (HLIS) of NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will provide powerful tests of cosmological models through sensitive measurements of cosmic shear, galaxy–galaxy lensing (GGL), and galaxy clustering. As part of the HLIS Project Infrastructure Team’s Data Challenge 1 (DC1), we carry out Fisher forecasts of cosmological parameter constraints from combinations of these probes, focusing on inverse-variance figures of merit (FoMs) for the parameters σ ₈ and Ω m , which scale the amplitude of weak lensing signals. We find good agreement between Fisher analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis of the DC1 baseline data vector, and we investigate varied priors on cosmological parameters and on “nuisance” parameters describing unknown biases in photometric redshifts or shear measurements. The DC1 benchmark modeling assumes a “lens = source” analysis with linear galaxy bias and no marginalization over baryonic physics. Under these assumptions, the forecast constraints from GGL + clustering are substantially stronger than those from cosmic shear, with the combination of all three probes (3 × 2 point) providing moderate further improvement. Adding tight external priors on the power spectrum shape parameters n s , Ω b , and h ₀ can improve the σ ₈ and Ω m FoMs by factors of 1.2–3.5. The smallest-scale angular bins provide much more information than the largest-scale bins, and the highest-redshift tomographic bins provide more information than the lowest-redshift bins. Factor of 2 changes in the priors on photo- z and shear biases, relative to the benchmark values based on anticipated calibration accuracy, produce changes of ≲20% in FoMs.
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BibTeX
@article{曹2026fisher,
title = {{Fisher Forecasts for Cosmological Yields from 3 × 2 point Analysis of the Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Imaging Survey}},
author = {Kaili 开力 Cao 曹 and David H. Weinberg and Vivian Miranda and Nihar Dalal and Tim Eifler and Jiachuan Xu and Haley Bowden and Katarina Markovič and (Roman HLIS Cosmology PIT)},
journal = {The Astrophysical Journal},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3847/1538-4357/ae9bc0},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ae9bc0},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Fisher Forecasts for Cosmological Yields from 3 × 2 point Analysis of the Roman Space Telescope High Latitude Imaging Survey
AU - Kaili 开力 Cao 曹
AU - David H. Weinberg
AU - Vivian Miranda
AU - Nihar Dalal
AU - Tim Eifler
AU - Jiachuan Xu
AU - Haley Bowden
AU - Katarina Markovič
AU - (Roman HLIS Cosmology PIT)
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - The Astrophysical Journal
DO - 10.3847/1538-4357/ae9bc0
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ae9bc0
AB - The High Latitude Imaging Survey (HLIS) of NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will provide powerful tests of cosmological models through sensitive measurements of cosmic shear, galaxy–galaxy lensing (GGL), and galaxy clustering. As part of the HLIS Project Infrastructure Team’s Data Challenge 1 (DC1), we carry out Fisher forecasts of cosmological parameter constraints from combinations of these probes, focusing on inverse-variance figures of merit (FoMs) for the parameters σ ₈ and Ω m , which scale the amplitude of weak lensing signals. We find good agreement between Fisher analysis and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis of the DC1 baseline data vector, and we investigate varied priors on cosmological parameters and on “nuisance” parameters describing unknown biases in photometric redshifts or shear measurements. The DC1 benchmark modeling assumes a “lens = source” analysis with linear galaxy bias and no marginalization over baryonic physics. Under these assumptions, the forecast constraints from GGL + clustering are substantially stronger than those from cosmic shear, with the combination of all three probes (3 × 2 point) providing moderate further improvement. Adding tight external priors on the power spectrum shape parameters n s , Ω b , and h ₀ can improve the σ ₈ and Ω m FoMs by factors of 1.2–3.5. The smallest-scale angular bins provide much more information than the largest-scale bins, and the highest-redshift tomographic bins provide more information than the lowest-redshift bins. Factor of 2 changes in the priors on photo- z and shear biases, relative to the benchmark values based on anticipated calibration accuracy, produce changes of ≲20% in FoMs.
SN - 0004-637X
SN - 1538-4357
ER -