Novel environmental risk index reveals uneven impact of climate change on fascioliasis risk across Africa and Europe
11 affiliations
- 1Department of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
- 2Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Globe Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
- 3School of Agriculture and Science, College of Agriculture, Engineering and Science, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
- 4One Health Center for Zoonoses and Tropical Veterinary Medicine, Ross University School of Veterinary Medicine, Basseterre, Saint Kitts and Nevis.
- 5School of Medicine, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
- 6Faculty of Health Sciences, Durban University of Technology, Durban, South Africa.
- 7Department of Physics, Geography and Environmental Sciences, School of Natural Sciences, Great Zimbabwe University, Masvingo, Zimbabwe.
- 8Geosciences Department, School of Geosciences, Disaster and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Science, Bindura University of Science Education, Bindura, Zimbabwe.
- 9National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR), Mwanza Centre, Mwanza, Tanzania.
- 10Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Allschwil, Switzerland.
- 11Faculty of Science, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
Abstract
Fascioliasis, a zoonotic parasitic disease caused by the liver flukes Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigantica, poses a significant threat to livestock and human health globally. Climate change is altering the transmission dynamics of this disease; however, the direction and magnitude of this change remain uncertain due to a lack of mechanistically grounded predictions at continental scale. In this study, we developed a novel risk index to assess how climate change may affect the potential for fascioliasis transmission across Africa and Europe. The index integrates the following three components that together capture the environmental requirements for Fasciola transmission: the temperature dependence of the parasite transmission; climatic suitability for the snail intermediate host; and availability of freshwater habitats. To estimate these components, we used data from published experimental studies, thousands of snail occurrence records, and both mechanistic and correlative modelling approaches. We predict that climate change will generally reduce fascioliasis risk across most of the ranges of the two investigated liver fluke species, albeit with marked geographical differences. The transmission risk of F. gigantica is predicted to decrease in the Sahel and West Africa, due to above-optimal temperatures for parasite transmission and climatic suitability for the intermediate hosts. However, risk for F. hepatica transmission is projected to increase in parts of Northern Europe, Scandinavia, and Iceland, where livestock densities are high. We also find that the potential for hybridization between F. hepatica and F. gigantica may decline due to reduced geographic overlap in areas that are highly suitable for transmission. By providing a scalable, ecologically informed framework for predicting fascioliasis risk under climate change, this study lays the groundwork for improved local risk assessment. Our risk index focuses on the environmentally sensitive components of the Fasciola life cycle and thus does not account for other important factors such as local farming practices and vertebrate host densities. Despite this caveat, our results provide a more nuanced perspective on the potential impact of climate change on fascioliasis transmission, showing that this will be highly uneven across Africa and Europe. Author summary: Fascioliasis is a snail-borne, zoonotic disease that affects both humans and livestock, causing major health burden and economic losses worldwide. The liver flukes that cause the disease use freshwater snails as their intermediate hosts. They therefore require aquatic habitats and suitable temperatures to complete their life cycle. Climate change altering these conditions; however, it is unclear how this will affect transmission of liver flukes in the future. Here we develop a new risk index that combines three key environmental factors of importance for liver fluke transmission: how suitable temperatures are for parasite transmission, the climatic suitability for snail hosts, and the availability of water. We mapped current and projected future transmission risk for two main species, Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigantica, across Africa and Europe. Different from what has been predicted by earlier studies, our results suggest that transmission risk will decline across most of the range of both species. This will have particularly big impacts in areas where livestock densities are high, including the Sahel region. In northern Europe, transmission risk increases slightly. This study also provides a modelling framework and novel ecological insights that can be used as important inputs for more robust assessments of risk of transmission at local and continental scale.
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BibTeX
@article{deure2026novel,
title = {{Novel environmental risk index reveals uneven impact of climate change on fascioliasis risk across Africa and Europe}},
author = {Tiem van der Deure and Samson Mukaratirwa and Moses Chimbari and Agrippa Dube and Tawanda Manyangadze and Mita Eva Sengupta and Safari Kinunghi and Rubens Mita and Julia Walker and Bryan O Nyawanda and David Nogués-Bravo and Anna-Sofie Stensgaard},
journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0013821},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0013821},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Novel environmental risk index reveals uneven impact of climate change on fascioliasis risk across Africa and Europe
AU - Tiem van der Deure
AU - Samson Mukaratirwa
AU - Moses Chimbari
AU - Agrippa Dube
AU - Tawanda Manyangadze
AU - Mita Eva Sengupta
AU - Safari Kinunghi
AU - Rubens Mita
AU - Julia Walker
AU - Bryan O Nyawanda
AU - David Nogués-Bravo
AU - Anna-Sofie Stensgaard
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/05
JO - PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0013821
UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0013821
AB - Fascioliasis, a zoonotic parasitic disease caused by the liver flukes Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigantica, poses a significant threat to livestock and human health globally. Climate change is altering the transmission dynamics of this disease; however, the direction and magnitude of this change remain uncertain due to a lack of mechanistically grounded predictions at continental scale. In this study, we developed a novel risk index to assess how climate change may affect the potential for fascioliasis transmission across Africa and Europe. The index integrates the following three components that together capture the environmental requirements for Fasciola transmission: the temperature dependence of the parasite transmission; climatic suitability for the snail intermediate host; and availability of freshwater habitats. To estimate these components, we used data from published experimental studies, thousands of snail occurrence records, and both mechanistic and correlative modelling approaches. We predict that climate change will generally reduce fascioliasis risk across most of the ranges of the two investigated liver fluke species, albeit with marked geographical differences. The transmission risk of F. gigantica is predicted to decrease in the Sahel and West Africa, due to above-optimal temperatures for parasite transmission and climatic suitability for the intermediate hosts. However, risk for F. hepatica transmission is projected to increase in parts of Northern Europe, Scandinavia, and Iceland, where livestock densities are high. We also find that the potential for hybridization between F. hepatica and F. gigantica may decline due to reduced geographic overlap in areas that are highly suitable for transmission. By providing a scalable, ecologically informed framework for predicting fascioliasis risk under climate change, this study lays the groundwork for improved local risk assessment. Our risk index focuses on the environmentally sensitive components of the Fasciola life cycle and thus does not account for other important factors such as local farming practices and vertebrate host densities. Despite this caveat, our results provide a more nuanced perspective on the potential impact of climate change on fascioliasis transmission, showing that this will be highly uneven across Africa and Europe. Author summary: Fascioliasis is a snail-borne, zoonotic disease that affects both humans and livestock, causing major health burden and economic losses worldwide. The liver flukes that cause the disease use freshwater snails as their intermediate hosts. They therefore require aquatic habitats and suitable temperatures to complete their life cycle. Climate change altering these conditions; however, it is unclear how this will affect transmission of liver flukes in the future. Here we develop a new risk index that combines three key environmental factors of importance for liver fluke transmission: how suitable temperatures are for parasite transmission, the climatic suitability for snail hosts, and the availability of water. We mapped current and projected future transmission risk for two main species, Fasciola hepatica and Fasciola gigantica, across Africa and Europe. Different from what has been predicted by earlier studies, our results suggest that transmission risk will decline across most of the range of both species. This will have particularly big impacts in areas where livestock densities are high, including the Sahel region. In northern Europe, transmission risk increases slightly. This study also provides a modelling framework and novel ecological insights that can be used as important inputs for more robust assessments of risk of transmission at local and continental scale.
SN - 1935-2735
SN - 1935-2727
ER -