A dispersal model for Cenchrus setaceus (Poaceae) in Mexican urban context
- 1El Colegio de la Frontera Sur, unidad Tapachula
Abstract
Urban environments suffer from multiple ecological issues, such as the invasion of alien. In Mexico, Cenchrus setaceus (African fountain grass) has been introduced as an ornamental species in the 1990s spreading all around the country. The aim of the present study is to propose an invasion models, based on the temporal dispersion of C. setaceus seeds using field data from the metropolitan area of Guadalajara, Jalisco, distinguished between planted individuals from self-propagated ones, quantifying seeds fertility ex situ. Model indicate that the current infested area of the Guadalajara metropolitan area could reach 51-89% within 100 years. Applied to three cities in Chiapas, the model shows limited spread over 50-year period from existing foci but strong sensitivity to new ornamental introductions. An analysis of containment strategies estimates an invasion front velocity of 0.13 km/year and identifies a 3-km-wide buffer zone as necessary to halt spread over a 25-year horizon.
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BibTeX
@misc{reyes2026dispersal,
title = {{A dispersal model for Cenchrus setaceus (Poaceae) in Mexican urban context}},
author = {R. Reyes and V. Bertolini and R. A. Barrio and J. J. Ochoa-Bonilla and T. Martinez-Trinidad},
howpublished = {bioRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.64898/2026.10.17.759854},
url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.17.759854v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A dispersal model for Cenchrus setaceus (Poaceae) in Mexican urban context
AU - R. Reyes
AU - V. Bertolini
AU - R. A. Barrio
AU - J. J. Ochoa-Bonilla
AU - T. Martinez-Trinidad
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/17
PB - bioRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.10.17.759854
UR - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.17.759854v1
AB - Urban environments suffer from multiple ecological issues, such as the invasion of alien. In Mexico, Cenchrus setaceus (African fountain grass) has been introduced as an ornamental species in the 1990s spreading all around the country. The aim of the present study is to propose an invasion models, based on the temporal dispersion of C. setaceus seeds using field data from the metropolitan area of Guadalajara, Jalisco, distinguished between planted individuals from self-propagated ones, quantifying seeds fertility ex situ. Model indicate that the current infested area of the Guadalajara metropolitan area could reach 51-89% within 100 years. Applied to three cities in Chiapas, the model shows limited spread over 50-year period from existing foci but strong sensitivity to new ornamental introductions. An analysis of containment strategies estimates an invasion front velocity of 0.13 km/year and identifies a 3-km-wide buffer zone as necessary to halt spread over a 25-year horizon.
ER -