Evidence and Uncertainty in the Future Pathways of Insects Under Global Change
Abstract
Insects are essential for life on Earth, yet anthropogenic environmental changes have led to declines in insect biomass, abundance, and species richness. Projecting future insect trajectories can inform conservation and policy but is complicated by variation in life histories and traits, nonlinear population dynamics, extreme population fluctuations, and interacting natural and anthropogenic drivers. Limited long-term, spatially representative data further constrain the accuracy of projections, while human-driven factors such as land-use change and policy shifts add layers of uncertainty. Understanding these uncertainties is essential for interpreting current evidence, prioritizing research, and developing robust policies that remain effective under a range of plausible future scenarios. This synthesis integrates evidence on insect responses to global change, bounding outcomes under plausible best- and worst-case scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, environmental change, and social and economic pathways over 10- and 50-year horizons. Across case studies of functionally diverse taxa with conservation, economic, and public-health relevance, uncertainty is a central feature, reflecting variation in species traits, environmental drivers, and social systems. We identify five pathways—agricultural deintensification, increasing food-system efficiency, urban greening, mitigation of light pollution, and landscape restoration—that can alter future trajectories of insect populations while providing benefits for humans. Combined with rapid climate mitigation and habitat protection, these interventions offer the greatest potential to stabilize and restore insect populations and their ecological functions. Recognizing insects as central to biodiversity planning and explicitly addressing uncertainty are critical for effective conservation, policy design, and long-term sustainability.
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BibTeX
@misc{bahlai2026evidence,
title = {{Evidence and Uncertainty in the Future Pathways of Insects Under Global Change}},
author = {Christie A Bahlai and Kayla I. Perry and Erica Fleishman and Robert Guralnick and Joseph Millard and Timothy C Bonebrake and Tim Newbold and Kyle Haynes and Paul Manning and Matthew Bulbert and Christopher Halsch and Chris Elphick and David Wagner and Jessica Lee Ware and Eliza M. Grames},
howpublished = {EcoEvoRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1093/aesa/saag040},
url = {https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/14810/},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Evidence and Uncertainty in the Future Pathways of Insects Under Global Change
AU - Christie A Bahlai
AU - Kayla I. Perry
AU - Erica Fleishman
AU - Robert Guralnick
AU - Joseph Millard
AU - Timothy C Bonebrake
AU - Tim Newbold
AU - Kyle Haynes
AU - Paul Manning
AU - Matthew Bulbert
AU - Christopher Halsch
AU - Chris Elphick
AU - David Wagner
AU - Jessica Lee Ware
AU - Eliza M. Grames
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/07
PB - EcoEvoRxiv
DO - 10.1093/aesa/saag040
UR - https://ecoevorxiv.org/repository/view/14810/
AB - Insects are essential for life on Earth, yet anthropogenic environmental changes have led to declines in insect biomass, abundance, and species richness. Projecting future insect trajectories can inform conservation and policy but is complicated by variation in life histories and traits, nonlinear population dynamics, extreme population fluctuations, and interacting natural and anthropogenic drivers. Limited long-term, spatially representative data further constrain the accuracy of projections, while human-driven factors such as land-use change and policy shifts add layers of uncertainty. Understanding these uncertainties is essential for interpreting current evidence, prioritizing research, and developing robust policies that remain effective under a range of plausible future scenarios. This synthesis integrates evidence on insect responses to global change, bounding outcomes under plausible best- and worst-case scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, environmental change, and social and economic pathways over 10- and 50-year horizons. Across case studies of functionally diverse taxa with conservation, economic, and public-health relevance, uncertainty is a central feature, reflecting variation in species traits, environmental drivers, and social systems. We identify five pathways—agricultural deintensification, increasing food-system efficiency, urban greening, mitigation of light pollution, and landscape restoration—that can alter future trajectories of insect populations while providing benefits for humans. Combined with rapid climate mitigation and habitat protection, these interventions offer the greatest potential to stabilize and restore insect populations and their ecological functions. Recognizing insects as central to biodiversity planning and explicitly addressing uncertainty are critical for effective conservation, policy design, and long-term sustainability.
ER -