Climate-related shifts in fire-weather regimes across heterogeneous mountain ecosystems: long-term spatiotemporal assessment in the Alborz mountains
Abstract
Climate change is intensifying fire-weather activity globally, yet the extent to which ecosystem structure modulates fire-weather regimes in complex mountain environments remains insufficiently understood. Here, we investigate contrasting responses of forested and non-forested landscapes to climate-driven fire weather in the Alborz Mountains (1980–2025). Using high-resolution Fire Weather Index (FWI) data, combined with nonparametric trend analysis, structural breakpoint detection, spatial hotspot analysis, and a supplementary machine learning-based statistical extrapolation, we identify a pronounced divergence in fire-weather dynamics across land-cover types. Non-forested areas exhibit up to approximately threefold higher mean annual frequencies of high-FWI days compared with forested areas at the high fire-danger threshold (FWI ≥21.3), together with stronger historical increasing trends, whereas Hyrcanian forests exhibit comparatively muted responses. These differences are consistent with the combined influence of contrasting land-cover environments and the prevailing climatic and topographic gradients across the Alborz Mountains, with forested regions generally experiencing lower fire-weather exposure under their current environmental setting. Spatial analyses reveal persistent and intensifying hotspots concentrated in the western Alborz, alongside a marked west–east gradient in fire-weather evolution. Abrupt shifts detected during the mid-to-late 1990s, particularly around 1996 and 1999, indicate potential transitions in regional fire-weather regimes, although their relationships with large-scale climatic variability require further investigation. As a supplementary analysis, historical fire-weather patterns were statistically extrapolated to 2026–2035, indicating relatively higher frequencies in non-forested summer landscapes. These estimates represent statistical continuation of historical temporal patterns rather than climate projections or deterministic predictions of future wildfire occurrence. Overall, the results highlight pronounced spatial contrasts in climate-driven fire-weather conditions among different land-cover environments. These patterns reflect the combined influence of land-cover distribution, regional climatic gradients, and topographic setting rather than the independent effect of land cover alone.
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BibTeX
@article{roshan2026climaterelated,
title = {{Climate-related shifts in fire-weather regimes across heterogeneous mountain ecosystems: long-term spatiotemporal assessment in the Alborz mountains}},
author = {Gholamreza Roshan and Abdol Azim Saman and Mostafa Sayad Arbabi and Muhammad Mubashar Dogar and Tarig A. Ali},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s41598-026-73933-6},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-73933-6},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate-related shifts in fire-weather regimes across heterogeneous mountain ecosystems: long-term spatiotemporal assessment in the Alborz mountains
AU - Gholamreza Roshan
AU - Abdol Azim Saman
AU - Mostafa Sayad Arbabi
AU - Muhammad Mubashar Dogar
AU - Tarig A. Ali
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/23
JO - Scientific Reports
DO - 10.1038/s41598-026-73933-6
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-026-73933-6
AB - Climate change is intensifying fire-weather activity globally, yet the extent to which ecosystem structure modulates fire-weather regimes in complex mountain environments remains insufficiently understood. Here, we investigate contrasting responses of forested and non-forested landscapes to climate-driven fire weather in the Alborz Mountains (1980–2025). Using high-resolution Fire Weather Index (FWI) data, combined with nonparametric trend analysis, structural breakpoint detection, spatial hotspot analysis, and a supplementary machine learning-based statistical extrapolation, we identify a pronounced divergence in fire-weather dynamics across land-cover types. Non-forested areas exhibit up to approximately threefold higher mean annual frequencies of high-FWI days compared with forested areas at the high fire-danger threshold (FWI ≥21.3), together with stronger historical increasing trends, whereas Hyrcanian forests exhibit comparatively muted responses. These differences are consistent with the combined influence of contrasting land-cover environments and the prevailing climatic and topographic gradients across the Alborz Mountains, with forested regions generally experiencing lower fire-weather exposure under their current environmental setting. Spatial analyses reveal persistent and intensifying hotspots concentrated in the western Alborz, alongside a marked west–east gradient in fire-weather evolution. Abrupt shifts detected during the mid-to-late 1990s, particularly around 1996 and 1999, indicate potential transitions in regional fire-weather regimes, although their relationships with large-scale climatic variability require further investigation. As a supplementary analysis, historical fire-weather patterns were statistically extrapolated to 2026–2035, indicating relatively higher frequencies in non-forested summer landscapes. These estimates represent statistical continuation of historical temporal patterns rather than climate projections or deterministic predictions of future wildfire occurrence. Overall, the results highlight pronounced spatial contrasts in climate-driven fire-weather conditions among different land-cover environments. These patterns reflect the combined influence of land-cover distribution, regional climatic gradients, and topographic setting rather than the independent effect of land cover alone.
SN - 2045-2322
ER -