Subjective uncertainty continuously shifts serial dependence between repulsion and attraction
Abstract
Perceptual decisions can be biased by task-irrelevant prior stimuli, manifesting as either attraction toward or repulsion from them. The present study investigated whether the opposite directions of serial dependence reflect qualitatively distinct mechanisms or instead reflect quantitative differences in a decisional process governed by subjective uncertainty. In a motion direction estimation task with random-dot kinematograms, we measured how quickly direction reports were initiated (RTI) as a trial-by-trial proxy for subjective uncertainty, with slower initiation reflecting higher subjective uncertainty. By correlating this measure with confidence ratings, we confirmed that RTI reflects trial-by-trial variability in subjective uncertainty rather than mere stochastic noise. Critically, we found that the direction and magnitude of serial dependence varied continuously with RTI on a trial-by-trial basis, with faster RTI associated with stronger repulsive bias. This graded relationship extended to individual differences, with individuals showing overall faster RTI exhibiting stronger repulsive serial dependence. We further show that this variability can be formally captured as a weighted sum of repulsive and attractive components, with the relative weighting of each component governed by subjective uncertainty. Together, these results suggest that a common, continuously graded decisional process underlies both repulsive and attractive serial dependence, providing a new framework in which serial dependence reflects the visual system's ongoing balance between perceptual sensitivity (i.e., repulsive bias) and stability (i.e., attractive bias) under uncertainty.
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BibTeX
@misc{chen2026subjective,
title = {{Subjective uncertainty continuously shifts serial dependence between repulsion and attraction}},
author = {Kuo-Wei Chen and Gi-Yeul Bae},
howpublished = {PsyArXiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.31234/osf.io/6b4uv_v1},
url = {https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/6b4uv_v1/},
note = {CC0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Subjective uncertainty continuously shifts serial dependence between repulsion and attraction
AU - Kuo-Wei Chen
AU - Gi-Yeul Bae
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/08
PB - PsyArXiv
DO - 10.31234/osf.io/6b4uv_v1
UR - https://osf.io/preprints/psyarxiv/6b4uv_v1/
AB - Perceptual decisions can be biased by task-irrelevant prior stimuli, manifesting as either attraction toward or repulsion from them. The present study investigated whether the opposite directions of serial dependence reflect qualitatively distinct mechanisms or instead reflect quantitative differences in a decisional process governed by subjective uncertainty. In a motion direction estimation task with random-dot kinematograms, we measured how quickly direction reports were initiated (RTI) as a trial-by-trial proxy for subjective uncertainty, with slower initiation reflecting higher subjective uncertainty. By correlating this measure with confidence ratings, we confirmed that RTI reflects trial-by-trial variability in subjective uncertainty rather than mere stochastic noise. Critically, we found that the direction and magnitude of serial dependence varied continuously with RTI on a trial-by-trial basis, with faster RTI associated with stronger repulsive bias. This graded relationship extended to individual differences, with individuals showing overall faster RTI exhibiting stronger repulsive serial dependence. We further show that this variability can be formally captured as a weighted sum of repulsive and attractive components, with the relative weighting of each component governed by subjective uncertainty. Together, these results suggest that a common, continuously graded decisional process underlies both repulsive and attractive serial dependence, providing a new framework in which serial dependence reflects the visual system's ongoing balance between perceptual sensitivity (i.e., repulsive bias) and stability (i.e., attractive bias) under uncertainty.
ER -