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Peer-reviewedCC BY 4.0Nature

The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases

  • Rory Gibb1
  • Sadie J. Ryan2,3,4
  • David M. Pigott5
  • María del Pilar Fernández6
  • Renata L. Muylaert7
  • Gregory F. Albery8
  • Daniel J. Becker9
  • Jason K. Blackburn10,11
  • Hernán Cáceres-Escobar12
  • Michael Celone13
  • Evan A. Eskew14
  • Hannah K. Frank15
19 more authors
  • Barbara A. Han16
  • Erin N. Hulland13
  • Kate E. Jones17
  • Rebecca Katz18
  • Adam J. Kucharski19
  • Direk Limmathurotsakul20,21
  • Catherine A. Lippi22,11
  • Joshua Longbottom23
  • Juan Fernando Martinez24
  • Jane P. Messina25,26
  • Elaine Okanyene Nsoesie27
  • David W. Redding28
  • Daniel Romero-Álvarez29,30
  • Boris V. Schmid31
  • Stephanie N. Seifert6
  • Anabel Sinchi32
  • Christopher H. Trisos33,34
  • Michelle Wille35
  • Colin J. Carlson36,37,38
38 affiliations
  1. 1Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK. [email protected]
  2. 2College of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu Natal, Durban, South Africa. [email protected]
  3. 3Department of Geography, Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Laboratory, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. [email protected]
  4. 4Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA. [email protected]
  5. 5Department of Health Metrics Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
  6. 6Paul G. Allen School for Global Health, Washington State University, Pullman, WA, USA
  7. 7Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  8. 8School of Natural Sciences, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland
  9. 9School of Biological Sciences, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
  10. 10Department of Geography, Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research (SEER) Laboratory, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
  11. 11Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
  12. 12Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Agronomía, Campus Providencia, Universidad de Las Américas, Santiago, Chile
  13. 13Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
  14. 14Institute for Interdisciplinary Data Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, USA
  15. 15Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA, USA
  16. 16Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, Millbrook, NY, USA
  17. 17Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, London, UK
  18. 18Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA
  19. 19Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
  20. 20Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
  21. 21Mahidol-Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU), Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand
  22. 22Department of Geography, Quantitative Disease Ecology and Conservation (QDEC) Laboratory, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
  23. 23Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
  24. 24Center for Integrated Earth System Information (CIESIN), Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
  25. 25Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
  26. 26School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
  27. 27Department of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
  28. 28Science Department, Natural History Museum, London, UK
  29. 29Instituto Nacional de Biodiversidad (INABIO), Quito, Ecuador
  30. 30Research Group of Emerging and Neglected Diseases, Ecoepidemiology and Biodiversity, Health Science Faculty, Universidad Internacional SEK (UISEK), Quito, Ecuador
  31. 31Department of Animal Sciences, Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands
  32. 32Instituto Nacional de Enfermedades Virales Humanas Dr. Julio I. Maiztegui, Administración Nacional de Laboratorios e Institutos de Salud (ANLIS), Pergamino, Argentina
  33. 33African Synthesis Centre for Climate Change, Environment and Development (ASCEND), University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
  34. 34Climate Risk Lab, African Climate and Development Initiative, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
  35. 35Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Centre for Pathogen Genomics, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
  36. 36Center for Global Health Science and Security, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. [email protected]
  37. 37Department of Biology, Georgetown University, Washington, DC, USA. [email protected]
  38. 38Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale University School of Public Health, New Haven, CT, USA. [email protected]
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Abstract

Emerging infectious diseases are a hallmark of the Anthropocene1,2. Human-driven ecosystem changes and human–wildlife–livestock contact can drive the emergence of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases3–5, but how much these processes shape landscapes of outbreak risk is poorly understood, beyond a few well-studied systems6–8. Here we consolidate 58,319 outbreak event records for 32 diseases and systematically test how 16 hypothesized social and environmental drivers impact outbreak geographies, while accounting for detection and reporting biases. We show that outbreak risks are typically highest in mosaic landscapes where people and livestock live alongside forests and fragmented ecosystems. These combined factors, along with long-term declines in precipitation, share strong impacts across several vector-borne diseases (for example, dengue, Lyme disease and zoonotic arboviruses). By contrast, directly transmitted zoonoses (for example, Ebola and mpox) share few common drivers, and the impacts of most other anthropogenic pressures (for example, deforestation, climate warming and agricultural intensification) vary widely between diseases. Most consistently, the observed geography of outbreaks is shaped by healthcare access: reporting declines by a median of 32% (range across diseases: 1.2–96.7%) for each additional hour’s travel time from a health facility. Our findings underscore that infectious disease spillover and emergence are multi-causal, and that no one-size-fits-all strategy can prevent epidemics and pandemics. Ecosystem-based public health interventions9 should always follow system-specific evidence, and be paired with greater investment in health systems and One Health pathogen surveillance.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{gibb2026anthropogenic,
  title = {{The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases}},
  author = {Rory Gibb and Sadie J. Ryan and David M. Pigott and María del Pilar Fernández and Renata L. Muylaert and Gregory F. Albery and Daniel J. Becker and Jason K. Blackburn and Hernán Cáceres-Escobar and Michael Celone and Evan A. Eskew and Hannah K. Frank and Barbara A. Han and Erin N. Hulland and Kate E. Jones and Rebecca Katz and Adam J. Kucharski and Direk Limmathurotsakul and Catherine A. Lippi and Joshua Longbottom and Juan Fernando Martinez and Jane P. Messina and Elaine Okanyene Nsoesie and David W. Redding and Daniel Romero-Álvarez and Boris V. Schmid and Stephanie N. Seifert and Anabel Sinchi and Christopher H. Trisos and Michelle Wille and Colin J. Carlson},
  journal = {Nature},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-026-11058-6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11058-6},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases
AU  - Rory Gibb
AU  - Sadie J. Ryan
AU  - David M. Pigott
AU  - María del Pilar Fernández
AU  - Renata L. Muylaert
AU  - Gregory F. Albery
AU  - Daniel J. Becker
AU  - Jason K. Blackburn
AU  - Hernán Cáceres-Escobar
AU  - Michael Celone
AU  - Evan A. Eskew
AU  - Hannah K. Frank
AU  - Barbara A. Han
AU  - Erin N. Hulland
AU  - Kate E. Jones
AU  - Rebecca Katz
AU  - Adam J. Kucharski
AU  - Direk Limmathurotsakul
AU  - Catherine A. Lippi
AU  - Joshua Longbottom
AU  - Juan Fernando Martinez
AU  - Jane P. Messina
AU  - Elaine Okanyene Nsoesie
AU  - David W. Redding
AU  - Daniel Romero-Álvarez
AU  - Boris V. Schmid
AU  - Stephanie N. Seifert
AU  - Anabel Sinchi
AU  - Christopher H. Trisos
AU  - Michelle Wille
AU  - Colin J. Carlson
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/23
JO  - Nature
DO  - 10.1038/s41586-026-11058-6
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-11058-6
AB  - Emerging infectious diseases are a hallmark of the Anthropocene1,2. Human-driven ecosystem changes and human–wildlife–livestock contact can drive the emergence of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases3–5, but how much these processes shape landscapes of outbreak risk is poorly understood, beyond a few well-studied systems6–8. Here we consolidate 58,319 outbreak event records for 32 diseases and systematically test how 16 hypothesized social and environmental drivers impact outbreak geographies, while accounting for detection and reporting biases. We show that outbreak risks are typically highest in mosaic landscapes where people and livestock live alongside forests and fragmented ecosystems. These combined factors, along with long-term declines in precipitation, share strong impacts across several vector-borne diseases (for example, dengue, Lyme disease and zoonotic arboviruses). By contrast, directly transmitted zoonoses (for example, Ebola and mpox) share few common drivers, and the impacts of most other anthropogenic pressures (for example, deforestation, climate warming and agricultural intensification) vary widely between diseases. Most consistently, the observed geography of outbreaks is shaped by healthcare access: reporting declines by a median of 32% (range across diseases: 1.2–96.7%) for each additional hour’s travel time from a health facility. Our findings underscore that infectious disease spillover and emergence are multi-causal, and that no one-size-fits-all strategy can prevent epidemics and pandemics. Ecosystem-based public health interventions9 should always follow system-specific evidence, and be paired with greater investment in health systems and One Health pathogen surveillance.
SN  - 0028-0836
SN  - 1476-4687
ER  -