Analysis of the spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanism of ecological restoration in the Kubuqi Desert
4 affiliations
- 1College of Desert Control Science and Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
- 2Key Laboratory of Aeolian Sand Physics and Sand Control Engineering, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
- 3National Key Laboratory of Eco-Environment in Water Engineering of Arid Regions, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China
- 4Ordos Forestry and Grassland Bureau, Ordos, Inner Mongolia, China
Abstract
The health of desert plant life is closely linked to the stability of the local ecological equilibrium, where both human actions and shifts in climate serve as primary influences on environmental security. This research examined the temporal and spatial variations in vegetation NDVI and climatic elements within the Kubuqi Desert between 2000 and 2023. It utilized partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and the geodetector method to uncover the underlying drivers of NDVI dynamics. Additionally, the study applied an ARIMA model to forecast the NDVI trajectory for the upcoming five-year period. The findings indicated that: (1) Plant life in the Kubuqi Desert has experienced substantial enhancement, with more than 80.61% of the region demonstrating a highly notable upward trajectory in NDVI; nonetheless, the general vegetation is projected to display slight anti-persistence going forward. (2) Annual precipitation, annual average high temperature, and annual average low temperature all showed an increasing trend. (3) Land transfer mainly occurred among barren land, cultivated land, and grassland, with the conversion from barren land to grassland accounting for 15.49%. (4) Precipitation and high temperature are key factors affecting NDVI distribution, with a 2–3month lag effect on NDVI. (5) Vegetation NDVI will show an increasing trend over the next five years. This study will provide certain data support for vegetation restoration strategies in the Kubuqi Desert.
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BibTeX
@article{li2026analysis,
title = {{Analysis of the spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanism of ecological restoration in the Kubuqi Desert}},
author = {Dongzhi Li and Dongzhi Li and Dongzhi Li and Xinghua Zhao and Xinghua Zhao and Xinghua Zhao and Yuxuan Feng and Yuxuan Feng and Yuxuan Feng and Shanghua Liu and Xiran Li and Xiran Li and Xiran Li},
journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.3389/fevo.2026.1935371},
url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2026.1935371},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Analysis of the spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanism of ecological restoration in the Kubuqi Desert
AU - Dongzhi Li
AU - Dongzhi Li
AU - Dongzhi Li
AU - Xinghua Zhao
AU - Xinghua Zhao
AU - Xinghua Zhao
AU - Yuxuan Feng
AU - Yuxuan Feng
AU - Yuxuan Feng
AU - Shanghua Liu
AU - Xiran Li
AU - Xiran Li
AU - Xiran Li
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/26
JO - Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
DO - 10.3389/fevo.2026.1935371
UR - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2026.1935371
AB - The health of desert plant life is closely linked to the stability of the local ecological equilibrium, where both human actions and shifts in climate serve as primary influences on environmental security. This research examined the temporal and spatial variations in vegetation NDVI and climatic elements within the Kubuqi Desert between 2000 and 2023. It utilized partial correlation analysis, multiple linear regression, and the geodetector method to uncover the underlying drivers of NDVI dynamics. Additionally, the study applied an ARIMA model to forecast the NDVI trajectory for the upcoming five-year period. The findings indicated that: (1) Plant life in the Kubuqi Desert has experienced substantial enhancement, with more than 80.61% of the region demonstrating a highly notable upward trajectory in NDVI; nonetheless, the general vegetation is projected to display slight anti-persistence going forward. (2) Annual precipitation, annual average high temperature, and annual average low temperature all showed an increasing trend. (3) Land transfer mainly occurred among barren land, cultivated land, and grassland, with the conversion from barren land to grassland accounting for 15.49%. (4) Precipitation and high temperature are key factors affecting NDVI distribution, with a 2–3month lag effect on NDVI. (5) Vegetation NDVI will show an increasing trend over the next five years. This study will provide certain data support for vegetation restoration strategies in the Kubuqi Desert.
SN - 2296-701X
ER -