Understanding visual impairment trends in the Gulf Council Countries: An analysis from 1990 to 2021 and time-series predictions for 2030
9 affiliations
- 1Asir Central Hospital, Abha, Saudi Arabia
- 2Ophthalmology Department, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- 3Faculty of Medicine, King Khalid University, Abha, Saudi Arabia
- 4Department of Ophthalmology, Prince Sultan Military Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- 5Saudi German Hospital, Abha, Saudi Arabia
- 6Pediatric Ophthalmology Department, KKESH, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- 7Muhayil Health Sector, Muhayil General Hospital, Aseer Health Cluster, Abha, Saudi Arabia
- 8Ophthalmology Department, Aseer Central Hospital, Abha, Saudi Arabia
- 9Riyadh First Health Cluster, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Abstract
Background: This research investigates blindness prevalence trends in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1990 to 2021 and provides projections up to 2030. The study aimed to inform public health planning, policy formulation, and healthcare delivery in the region. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we conducted a time-series analysis applying AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to evaluate age-standardized prevalence rates and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for blindness. Country-specific and gender-specific were analyzed. Forecasts for 2022–2030 were generated and validated against observed data. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, most GCC countries exhibited declining trends in blindness prevalence. Bahrain’s rate decreased from 13,498.2 to 12,884.7 per 100,000, Kuwait from 12,873.8 to 12,881.4, Saudi Arabia from 14,207.2 to 14,166.8, and the UAE from 11,905.9 to 11,869.6. Oman and Qatar showed relative stability with minor fluctuations. Gender disparities were consistent, with higher prevalence among females in all countries except the UAE. DALYs also declined across the region, with Saudi Arabia reporting the highest burden. Forecasts for 2022–2030 indicate continued reductions in most countries, though Oman may experience a moderate increase. Conclusions: The findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies, improved healthcare infrastructure, and gender-sensitive interventions to address visual impairment in the GCC. Continuous monitoring and international collaboration are essential to sustain progress and mitigate future burdens.
Related
- Functional connectivity in cerebral visual impairment: implications for daily visual behaviors
- Vision In SyndrOmic Neurodevelopmental disorders-15q (VISiON-15q) study: eye tracking to supplement clinical examination for detection of cerebral/cortical visual impairment in children with Angelman and Duplication of 15q Syndromes
- The Effect of Visual Impairment on the Controllability of a Brain-Computer Interface Using Visual Spatial Attention
- Active Visual Semantics: A large-scale MEG and eye-tracking dataset for understanding visual intelligence in action
- Establishing an assay for visual desensitization in larval zebrafish for understanding synaptic plasticity
BibTeX
@article{zomia2026understanding,
title = {{Understanding visual impairment trends in the Gulf Council Countries: An analysis from 1990 to 2021 and time-series predictions for 2030}},
author = {Ahmed Saad AL Zomia and Saeed T. Alshahrani and Ibrahim Ali AL Zehefa and Abdullah Jallwi Korkoman and Ahmed Abdullah Alamoud and Mazen Abdullah Alqahtani and Mahmoud Tarek Mirdad and Mohammed Tarek Mirdad and Raad Ahmed A. Alnami and Faisal Nasser M. Alahmari and Saad Ali Alshahrani and Sultan Abdulrahman Alyali},
journal = {PLOS One},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0357032},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0357032},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Understanding visual impairment trends in the Gulf Council Countries: An analysis from 1990 to 2021 and time-series predictions for 2030
AU - Ahmed Saad AL Zomia
AU - Saeed T. Alshahrani
AU - Ibrahim Ali AL Zehefa
AU - Abdullah Jallwi Korkoman
AU - Ahmed Abdullah Alamoud
AU - Mazen Abdullah Alqahtani
AU - Mahmoud Tarek Mirdad
AU - Mohammed Tarek Mirdad
AU - Raad Ahmed A. Alnami
AU - Faisal Nasser M. Alahmari
AU - Saad Ali Alshahrani
AU - Sultan Abdulrahman Alyali
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/08
JO - PLOS One
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0357032
UR - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0357032
AB - Background: This research investigates blindness prevalence trends in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1990 to 2021 and provides projections up to 2030. The study aimed to inform public health planning, policy formulation, and healthcare delivery in the region. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we conducted a time-series analysis applying AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models to evaluate age-standardized prevalence rates and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) for blindness. Country-specific and gender-specific were analyzed. Forecasts for 2022–2030 were generated and validated against observed data. Results: Between 1990 and 2021, most GCC countries exhibited declining trends in blindness prevalence. Bahrain’s rate decreased from 13,498.2 to 12,884.7 per 100,000, Kuwait from 12,873.8 to 12,881.4, Saudi Arabia from 14,207.2 to 14,166.8, and the UAE from 11,905.9 to 11,869.6. Oman and Qatar showed relative stability with minor fluctuations. Gender disparities were consistent, with higher prevalence among females in all countries except the UAE. DALYs also declined across the region, with Saudi Arabia reporting the highest burden. Forecasts for 2022–2030 indicate continued reductions in most countries, though Oman may experience a moderate increase. Conclusions: The findings underscore the need for targeted public health strategies, improved healthcare infrastructure, and gender-sensitive interventions to address visual impairment in the GCC. Continuous monitoring and international collaboration are essential to sustain progress and mitigate future burdens.
SN - 1932-6203
ER -