Wake effects in a 100 GW North Sea offshore wind scenario: a model intercomparison under year-round weather conditions
Abstract
Large-scale offshore wind development will intensify wake interactions between wind farm clusters in the North Sea, increasing uncertainty in regional energy estimates. We assess HARMONIE-AROME mesoscale simulations, ASPIRE large-eddy simulations (LES), and three engineering wake models based on Jensen, Bastankhah Gaussian, and TurbOPark formulations for a 100.7 GW 2050 offshore wind scenario. We find that LES and mesoscale simulations accurately represent observed local free-stream wind conditions. Moreover, all engineering wake models predict higher mean wind speeds than LES in every month, with biases reaching 0.60-0.70 m/s at 10-40 km downstream. These differences also vary systematically with atmospheric regime: the Bastankhah Gaussian model remains positively biased across wind speed and stability conditions, whereas Jensen and TurbOPark shift from underprediction in unstable and near-neutral conditions to overprediction in stable conditions at 8-12 m/s. These results show that agreement in annual capacity factor can conceal substantial differences across space, time, and atmospheric regime, highlighting the importance of including sensitivity to model formulation in regional wind energy assessments.
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BibTeX
@misc{quinones2026wake,
title = {{Wake effects in a 100 GW North Sea offshore wind scenario: a model intercomparison under year-round weather conditions}},
author = {Jhon J. Quiñones and Diego Siguenza-Alvarado and Peter Baas and Pim Van Dorp and Majid Bastankhah and Remco A. Verzijlbergh},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.23624},
eprint = {2610.23624},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.23624},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Wake effects in a 100 GW North Sea offshore wind scenario: a model intercomparison under year-round weather conditions
AU - Jhon J. Quiñones
AU - Diego Siguenza-Alvarado
AU - Peter Baas
AU - Pim Van Dorp
AU - Majid Bastankhah
AU - Remco A. Verzijlbergh
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/16
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.23624
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.23624
AB - Large-scale offshore wind development will intensify wake interactions between wind farm clusters in the North Sea, increasing uncertainty in regional energy estimates. We assess HARMONIE-AROME mesoscale simulations, ASPIRE large-eddy simulations (LES), and three engineering wake models based on Jensen, Bastankhah Gaussian, and TurbOPark formulations for a 100.7 GW 2050 offshore wind scenario. We find that LES and mesoscale simulations accurately represent observed local free-stream wind conditions. Moreover, all engineering wake models predict higher mean wind speeds than LES in every month, with biases reaching 0.60-0.70 m/s at 10-40 km downstream. These differences also vary systematically with atmospheric regime: the Bastankhah Gaussian model remains positively biased across wind speed and stability conditions, whereas Jensen and TurbOPark shift from underprediction in unstable and near-neutral conditions to overprediction in stable conditions at 8-12 m/s. These results show that agreement in annual capacity factor can conceal substantial differences across space, time, and atmospheric regime, highlighting the importance of including sensitivity to model formulation in regional wind energy assessments.
ER -