Astrophysical Sensitivity Projections for the IceCube Upgrade
Abstract
Embedded in the South Pole's glacial ice, IceCube detects neutrino-induced Cherenkov light using an array of digital optical modules equipped with single photomultiplier tubes (PMTs). The new extension installed in 2025/2026, the IceCube Upgrade, introduces densely instrumented multi-PMT optical modules within the existing infill array known as IceCube DeepCore. It is expected to enhance sensitivity in the GeV regime, with commissioning of the detector expected to be complete by the end of 2026. We present the projected sensitivities of the IceCube Upgrade for three key analyses: neutrino transient searches, steady emission from point sources such as NGC 1068, and diffuse emission from the Milky Way. These case studies represent direct extensions of current IceCube analyses. Using new Monte Carlo datasets, we demonstrate that the IceCube Upgrade achieves order-of-magnitude improvement in sensitivity at low energies (≲ 10 GeV) for time-dependent sources across short timescales. Conversely, for time-independent searches, the relative impact of the IceCube Upgrade's low-energy data is diluted by the decade-long accumulation of high-energy archival data. Nevertheless, we project significant improvements for soft-spectrum sources especially across the southern sky, driven by the IceCube Upgrade's superior background rejection capabilities. The improved sensitivity at low energies for both transient and steady sources will open up an expanded discovery window for IceCube in the GeV band over the next decade.
Related
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BibTeX
@misc{abbasi2026astrophysical,
title = {{Astrophysical Sensitivity Projections for the IceCube Upgrade}},
author = {R. Abbasi and M. Ackermann and J. Adams and J. A. Aguilar and M. Ahlers and J. M. Alameddine and S. Ali and N. M. Amin and K. Andeen and C. Argüelles and S. Athanasiadou and S. N. Axani and R. Babu and X. Bai and A. Balagopal V. and S. W. Barwick and V. Basu and R. Bay and J. J. Beatty and J. Becker Tjus and P. Behrens and J. Beise and C. Bellenghi and S. Benkel and S. BenZvi and D. Berley and E. Bernardini and D. Z. Besson and E. Blaufuss and L. Bloom and S. Blot and F. Bontempo and J. Y. Book Motzkin and C. Boscolo Meneguolo and S. Böser and O. Botner and J. Böttcher and J. Braun and B. Brinson and Z. Brisson-Tsavoussis and L. Brusa and R. T. Burley and D. Butterfield and K. Carloni and J. Carpio and N. Chau and Y. C. Chen and Z. Chen and D. Chirkin and S. Choi and A. Chubarov and B. A. Clark and D. A. Coloma Borja and A. Connolly and J. M. Conrad and D. F. Cowen and C. De Clercq and J. J. DeLaunay and D. Delgado and T. Delmeulle},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2608.28395},
eprint = {2608.28395},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.28395},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Astrophysical Sensitivity Projections for the IceCube Upgrade
AU - R. Abbasi
AU - M. Ackermann
AU - J. Adams
AU - J. A. Aguilar
AU - M. Ahlers
AU - J. M. Alameddine
AU - S. Ali
AU - N. M. Amin
AU - K. Andeen
AU - C. Arg{ü}elles
AU - S. Athanasiadou
AU - S. N. Axani
AU - R. Babu
AU - X. Bai
AU - A. Balagopal V.
AU - S. W. Barwick
AU - V. Basu
AU - R. Bay
AU - J. J. Beatty
AU - J. Becker Tjus
AU - P. Behrens
AU - J. Beise
AU - C. Bellenghi
AU - S. Benkel
AU - S. BenZvi
AU - D. Berley
AU - E. Bernardini
AU - D. Z. Besson
AU - E. Blaufuss
AU - L. Bloom
AU - S. Blot
AU - F. Bontempo
AU - J. Y. Book Motzkin
AU - C. Boscolo Meneguolo
AU - S. B{ö}ser
AU - O. Botner
AU - J. B{ö}ttcher
AU - J. Braun
AU - B. Brinson
AU - Z. Brisson-Tsavoussis
AU - L. Brusa
AU - R. T. Burley
AU - D. Butterfield
AU - K. Carloni
AU - J. Carpio
AU - N. Chau
AU - Y. C. Chen
AU - Z. Chen
AU - D. Chirkin
AU - S. Choi
AU - A. Chubarov
AU - B. A. Clark
AU - D. A. Coloma Borja
AU - A. Connolly
AU - J. M. Conrad
AU - D. F. Cowen
AU - C. De Clercq
AU - J. J. DeLaunay
AU - D. Delgado
AU - T. Delmeulle
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/28
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2608.28395
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2608.28395
AB - Embedded in the South Pole's glacial ice, IceCube detects neutrino-induced Cherenkov light using an array of digital optical modules equipped with single photomultiplier tubes (PMTs). The new extension installed in 2025/2026, the IceCube Upgrade, introduces densely instrumented multi-PMT optical modules within the existing infill array known as IceCube DeepCore. It is expected to enhance sensitivity in the GeV regime, with commissioning of the detector expected to be complete by the end of 2026. We present the projected sensitivities of the IceCube Upgrade for three key analyses: neutrino transient searches, steady emission from point sources such as NGC 1068, and diffuse emission from the Milky Way. These case studies represent direct extensions of current IceCube analyses. Using new Monte Carlo datasets, we demonstrate that the IceCube Upgrade achieves order-of-magnitude improvement in sensitivity at low energies (≲ 10 GeV) for time-dependent sources across short timescales. Conversely, for time-independent searches, the relative impact of the IceCube Upgrade's low-energy data is diluted by the decade-long accumulation of high-energy archival data. Nevertheless, we project significant improvements for soft-spectrum sources especially across the southern sky, driven by the IceCube Upgrade's superior background rejection capabilities. The improved sensitivity at low energies for both transient and steady sources will open up an expanded discovery window for IceCube in the GeV band over the next decade.
ER -