Emergent dilemma and periodic oscillation in the nonlinear interplay between epidemic and behavior
Abstract
Human behaviors, particularly non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), are dynamically coupled with epidemic spreading. While prior studies mainly assume a linear interplay, real-world behavioral evolution is driven by nonlinear responses and social influence. Here, we incorporate these multifaceted mechanisms into a co-evolutionary model and analytically derive the critical thresholds. Notably, as the infection rate grows, NPI compliance initially rises but then abruptly drops to zero. This paradoxical decline indicates an emergent social dilemma: at high infection rates, abandoning NPIs is individually optimal but detrimentally triggers an explosive surge in epidemic prevalence. We further show that socially induced overestimation of the infection rate can counterintuitively prompt individuals to abandon NPIs. Moreover, the interplay with social influence induces periodic oscillations, reflecting a tragic cycle of recurrent epidemic waves. Furthermore, we validate the robustness of this NPI-abandonment dilemma in networked population. Our work illustrates rich emergent phenomena in the co-evolution of epidemic and behavior, challenging traditional views on this coupled dynamics.
Versions
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BibTeX
@misc{liu2026emergent,
title = {{Emergent dilemma and periodic oscillation in the nonlinear interplay between epidemic and behavior}},
author = {Longzhao Liu and Hongwei Zheng and Yajing Hao and Qun Wang and Xin Wang and Shaoting Tang},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = jun,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2606.12013},
eprint = {2606.12013},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.12013},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Emergent dilemma and periodic oscillation in the nonlinear interplay between epidemic and behavior
AU - Longzhao Liu
AU - Hongwei Zheng
AU - Yajing Hao
AU - Qun Wang
AU - Xin Wang
AU - Shaoting Tang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/06/10
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2606.12013
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.12013
AB - Human behaviors, particularly non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), are dynamically coupled with epidemic spreading. While prior studies mainly assume a linear interplay, real-world behavioral evolution is driven by nonlinear responses and social influence. Here, we incorporate these multifaceted mechanisms into a co-evolutionary model and analytically derive the critical thresholds. Notably, as the infection rate grows, NPI compliance initially rises but then abruptly drops to zero. This paradoxical decline indicates an emergent social dilemma: at high infection rates, abandoning NPIs is individually optimal but detrimentally triggers an explosive surge in epidemic prevalence. We further show that socially induced overestimation of the infection rate can counterintuitively prompt individuals to abandon NPIs. Moreover, the interplay with social influence induces periodic oscillations, reflecting a tragic cycle of recurrent epidemic waves. Furthermore, we validate the robustness of this NPI-abandonment dilemma in networked population. Our work illustrates rich emergent phenomena in the co-evolution of epidemic and behavior, challenging traditional views on this coupled dynamics.
ER -