When safety feels like enough: structural protection, institutional planning, and the limits of cyclone preparedness in southern Africa
4 affiliations
- 1Independent Researcher and Consultant, Numbers Whizzy Ltd, Base N'Tchinga Ave. 495, Maputo, Mozambique
- 2Faculty of Agronomy and Forestry Engineering, Eduardo Mondlane University, Campus Universitário, Building 1, Maputo, Mozambique; Corresponding author.
- 3Faculty of Agronomy and Forestry Engineering, Eduardo Mondlane University, Campus Universitário, Building 1, Maputo, Mozambique
- 4SEPPA Agronegócios e Consultoria, Bairro de Jardim, rua da Agricultura 336, Maputo, Mozambique
Abstract
A central question in disaster risk reduction (DRR) is whether physical protection complements or substitutes for household preparedness. We examine whether structural protection is associated with household protective action following severe-weather warnings and whether it moderates the role of institutional preparedness. Using survey data from 2662 households in cyclone-affected communities in Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique, we estimate logistic regression models with wild cluster bootstrap inference. Structural protection indicators are generally negatively associated with protective action, with good drainage showing the most consistent negative association across specifications. In contrast, institutional preparedness is consistently positively associated with protective action: disaster-planning group membership (AME = 0.209) and community evacuation plans (AME = 0.107) are positively associated with action, as is early-warning access (AME = 0.121). The association between evacuation planning and protective action is significantly stronger where housing quality is good or excellent (χ 2 = 4.06, p = 0.044), with a predicted plan effect of 11.6 percentage points under good housing compared with 2.7 percentage points under poor housing, indicating complementarity rather than substitution. These findings suggest that structural and institutional dimensions of preparedness may not operate independently. The negative association between structural protection and protective action is consistent with risk compensation but may also reflect rational adaptation to lower underlying risk. The findings highlight the importance of integrating physical and institutional preparedness in DRR planning.
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BibTeX
@article{cunguara2026when,
title = {{When safety feels like enough: structural protection, institutional planning, and the limits of cyclone preparedness in southern Africa}},
author = {Benedito Cunguara and Luís Artur and Noa Beca and Gilton Simango},
journal = {Climate Risk Management},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1016/j.crm.2026.100896},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2026.100896},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - When safety feels like enough: structural protection, institutional planning, and the limits of cyclone preparedness in southern Africa
AU - Benedito Cunguara
AU - Luís Artur
AU - Noa Beca
AU - Gilton Simango
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/30
JO - Climate Risk Management
DO - 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100896
UR - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2026.100896
AB - A central question in disaster risk reduction (DRR) is whether physical protection complements or substitutes for household preparedness. We examine whether structural protection is associated with household protective action following severe-weather warnings and whether it moderates the role of institutional preparedness. Using survey data from 2662 households in cyclone-affected communities in Madagascar, Malawi, and Mozambique, we estimate logistic regression models with wild cluster bootstrap inference. Structural protection indicators are generally negatively associated with protective action, with good drainage showing the most consistent negative association across specifications. In contrast, institutional preparedness is consistently positively associated with protective action: disaster-planning group membership (AME = 0.209) and community evacuation plans (AME = 0.107) are positively associated with action, as is early-warning access (AME = 0.121). The association between evacuation planning and protective action is significantly stronger where housing quality is good or excellent (χ 2 = 4.06, p = 0.044), with a predicted plan effect of 11.6 percentage points under good housing compared with 2.7 percentage points under poor housing, indicating complementarity rather than substitution. These findings suggest that structural and institutional dimensions of preparedness may not operate independently. The negative association between structural protection and protective action is consistent with risk compensation but may also reflect rational adaptation to lower underlying risk. The findings highlight the importance of integrating physical and institutional preparedness in DRR planning.
SN - 2212-0963
ER -