Previously undetected disturbances are the dominant driver of carbon loss in protected Amazonian forests
Abstract
Amazonian forests face increasing pressures from human-induced deforestation and degradation, compounded by natural disturbances such as droughts and windthrow events. In response, forest protection policies strengthened and formalised large protected areas and Indigenous lands, now covering 43% of the region. However, clearings and degradation in these protected areas are complex and hard to detect with current medium-resolution satellite observations. Here we mapped canopy height (10 m) and aboveground biomass carbon (30 m) changes from 2019 to 2022 by combining ~727,000 spaceborne LiDAR measurements with Sentinel-1/2 imagery using a deep learning framework. We estimate a net aboveground carbon loss of −257 ± 47 Tg C yr−1 across the entire Amazon forest, with changes in carbon density aligning with field inventory data. Gross losses from agricultural expansion, logging, fire, road construction, and drought (−437 ± 42 Tg C yr−1) exceed gross gains of 180 ± 20 Tg C yr−1, with secondary-forest regrowth contributing 38 ± 7 Tg C yr−1. Approximately 28% of net carbon loss occurred within protected areas, including 6% in Indigenous lands. We found that 80% of total carbon losses were associated with small disturbance patches and low height losses, which remain largely undetected by Landsat-based disturbance products yet supported by independent airborne LiDAR and PlanetScope imagery. As a result, carbon losses exceeded Landsat-based estimates by 84% in non-protected areas and 166% in protected areas, and were 36–55% higher than passive-microwave-based estimates3,4 and consistently greater than those from dynamic vegetation models. These findings highlight the critical role of high-resolution monitoring in uncovering hidden carbon losses and underscore the need for improved conservation strategies, even within formally protected Amazonian forests.
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BibTeX
@misc{wan2026previously,
title = {{Previously undetected disturbances are the dominant driver of carbon loss in protected Amazonian forests}},
author = {Liang Wan and Philippe Ciais and Aurélien de Truchis and Ewan Sean and Fabian Jörg Fischer and Ricardo Dalagnol and Clément Bourgoin and Yidi Xu and Nan Meng and Xiaojun Li and Arthur Fendrich and Clement Albergel and Youngryel Ryu and Stephen A. Sitch and Thais Michele Rosan and Jean-Pierre Wigneron and Fabien H. Wagner and Shidong Liu and Lei Zhu and Agnès Pellissier-Tanon and Ibrahim Fayad and Gabriel Belouze and Clement J. F. Delcourt and Sassan Saatchi and Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão and Jean P. Ometto},
howpublished = {EarthArXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.31223/x5r51b},
url = {https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15677/},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Previously undetected disturbances are the dominant driver of carbon loss in protected Amazonian forests
AU - Liang Wan
AU - Philippe Ciais
AU - Aurélien de Truchis
AU - Ewan Sean
AU - Fabian Jörg Fischer
AU - Ricardo Dalagnol
AU - Clément Bourgoin
AU - Yidi Xu
AU - Nan Meng
AU - Xiaojun Li
AU - Arthur Fendrich
AU - Clement Albergel
AU - Youngryel Ryu
AU - Stephen A. Sitch
AU - Thais Michele Rosan
AU - Jean-Pierre Wigneron
AU - Fabien H. Wagner
AU - Shidong Liu
AU - Lei Zhu
AU - Agnès Pellissier-Tanon
AU - Ibrahim Fayad
AU - Gabriel Belouze
AU - Clement J. F. Delcourt
AU - Sassan Saatchi
AU - Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de Aragão
AU - Jean P. Ometto
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/22
PB - EarthArXiv
DO - 10.31223/x5r51b
UR - https://eartharxiv.org/repository/view/15677/
AB - Amazonian forests face increasing pressures from human-induced deforestation and degradation, compounded by natural disturbances such as droughts and windthrow events. In response, forest protection policies strengthened and formalised large protected areas and Indigenous lands, now covering 43% of the region. However, clearings and degradation in these protected areas are complex and hard to detect with current medium-resolution satellite observations. Here we mapped canopy height (10 m) and aboveground biomass carbon (30 m) changes from 2019 to 2022 by combining ~727,000 spaceborne LiDAR measurements with Sentinel-1/2 imagery using a deep learning framework. We estimate a net aboveground carbon loss of −257 ± 47 Tg C yr−1 across the entire Amazon forest, with changes in carbon density aligning with field inventory data. Gross losses from agricultural expansion, logging, fire, road construction, and drought (−437 ± 42 Tg C yr−1) exceed gross gains of 180 ± 20 Tg C yr−1, with secondary-forest regrowth contributing 38 ± 7 Tg C yr−1. Approximately 28% of net carbon loss occurred within protected areas, including 6% in Indigenous lands. We found that 80% of total carbon losses were associated with small disturbance patches and low height losses, which remain largely undetected by Landsat-based disturbance products yet supported by independent airborne LiDAR and PlanetScope imagery. As a result, carbon losses exceeded Landsat-based estimates by 84% in non-protected areas and 166% in protected areas, and were 36–55% higher than passive-microwave-based estimates3,4 and consistently greater than those from dynamic vegetation models. These findings highlight the critical role of high-resolution monitoring in uncovering hidden carbon losses and underscore the need for improved conservation strategies, even within formally protected Amazonian forests.
ER -