MODEL ADOPTION #4473: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33. — E8 Intelligence Research
- 1Independent Researcher, United Kingdom
Abstract
DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — pool density ≥90 filter is not a concrete, testable edge compatible with E8 geometry timing; it is a lagging regime proxy with no causal link to FADE polarity or Gods-Clock phase. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+1.4pp) is real in backtest but likely overfit to recent volatility clustering; frequency loss (20–30%) would cut absolute PnL, and the live window shows benefit is concentrated in wkjudas signals only — not generalizable across providers. Net expected impact: wash to slightly negative. RISK: Density is lagging — filters out fresh-trend entries (E8's early FADE setups); threshold drift with regime; reduces trade count, starving the model of compounding opportunities; masks signal-source quality differences. TEST: No replay-bench test can pass — the filter must be rejected outright because it does not align with E8 geometry timing (density is not a phase/rhythm variable). If you insist on testing, run 300 shadow trades with
Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
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BibTeX
@misc{caldin2026model,
title = {{MODEL ADOPTION #4473: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33. — E8 Intelligence Research}},
author = {Andrew Stewart Caldin},
howpublished = {Zenodo},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23526188},
url = {https://zenodo.org/records/23526188},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - MODEL ADOPTION #4473: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Pool density HIGH (>=90) — improves win rate from 31.5% to 33. — E8 Intelligence Research
AU - Andrew Stewart Caldin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/21
PB - Zenodo
DO - 10.5281/zenodo.23526188
UR - https://zenodo.org/records/23526188
AB - DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No element survives — pool density ≥90 filter is not a concrete, testable edge compatible with E8 geometry timing; it is a lagging regime proxy with no causal link to FADE polarity or Gods-Clock phase. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+1.4pp) is real in backtest but likely overfit to recent volatility clustering; frequency loss (20–30%) would cut absolute PnL, and the live window shows benefit is concentrated in wkjudas signals only — not generalizable across providers. Net expected impact: wash to slightly negative. RISK: Density is lagging — filters out fresh-trend entries (E8's early FADE setups); threshold drift with regime; reduces trade count, starving the model of compounding opportunities; masks signal-source quality differences. TEST: No replay-bench test can pass — the filter must be rejected outright because it does not align with E8 geometry timing (density is not a phase/rhythm variable). If you insist on testing, run 300 shadow trades with Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
ER -