Long‐term market value after meniscal injury in professional football players largely follows expected career trajectories: A matched cohort study
8 affiliations
- 1IRCCS Ospedale Galeazzi - Sant'Ambrogio Milan Italy.
- 2Link Campus University Rome Italy.
- 3Ospedale Vito Fazzi Lecce Italy.
- 4Residency Program in Orthopaedic and Traumatology University of Milan Milan Italy.
- 510X Educational Division Milan Italy.
- 6Research Unit for Orthopaedic Sports Medicine and Injury Prevention, Institute for Sports Medicine, Alpine Medicine and Health Tourism UMIT TIROL-Private University for Health Sciences and Health Technology Hall Tirol Austria.
- 7Gelenkpunkt-Sports and Joint Surgery, FIFA Medical Centre of Excellence Innsbruck/Austria Olympiastraße Innsbruck Austria.
- 8School of Sport and Exercise Sciences Liverpool John Moores University Liverpool UK.
Abstract
Purpose
To evaluate long-term changes in market value following meniscal injury in professional football players compared with matched players without meniscal injury and identify characteristics associated with postinjury market value.Methods
This retrospective cohort study analysed 80 meniscal injury episodes (74 players) recorded in Transfermarkt between 2006 and 2024. Market value was assessed during the preinjury season, injury year and annually for five subsequent years. Linear mixed-effects models evaluated longitudinal changes and associations with age, playing position and competitive level. Injury episodes identifiable in an openly available Transfermarkt-derived database were matched (1:2) to controls without recorded meniscal injury by position, competitive level, calendar year, age and preinjury market value. Covariate balance was assessed using standardised mean differences (SMDs), and trajectories were compared between groups.Results
Mean age at injury was 25.05 ± 4.36 years, and mean absence was 103.87 ± 93.48 days. Market value increased at one (+25.61%; p = 0.023) and 2 years (+26.82%; p = 0.019) compared with preinjury values, before declining by 31.56% at 5 years (p = 0.001). Older age and lower competitive level were independently associated with lower market value. Among 64 matched injury episodes and 128 controls (all SMDs <0.15), market value declined in both groups over 5 years (-44.8% vs. -34.5%), without significant between-group differences at any time point (5-year difference, -15.7%; 95% CI, -39.2% to +16.8%; p = 0.30). Sensitivity analyses showed no significant additional decline among injured players.Conclusion
Meniscal injuries were not associated with an immediate reduction in market value among professional football players. The long-term decline in market value did not differ significantly from that of matched players without meniscal injury and appeared largely to reflect the expected age-related evolution of player value; however, given the width of the confidence intervals and the absence of clinical detail, a moderate injury-related effect cannot be excluded.Level of evidence
Level III, retrospective cohort study.
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BibTeX
@article{dambrosi2026longterm,
title = {{Long‐term market value after meniscal injury in professional football players largely follows expected career trajectories: A matched cohort study}},
author = {Riccardo D'Ambrosi and Jacopo Conteduca and Andrea Mei and Marco Sorrentino and Claudio Cordani and Christian Fink and Philipp Baumert},
journal = {Journal of experimental orthopaedics},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1002/jeo2.70968},
url = {https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13718456},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Long‐term market value after meniscal injury in professional football players largely follows expected career trajectories: A matched cohort study
AU - Riccardo D'Ambrosi
AU - Jacopo Conteduca
AU - Andrea Mei
AU - Marco Sorrentino
AU - Claudio Cordani
AU - Christian Fink
AU - Philipp Baumert
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - Journal of experimental orthopaedics
DO - 10.1002/jeo2.70968
UR - https://europepmc.org/article/PMC/PMC13718456
AB - Purpose To evaluate long-term changes in market value following meniscal injury in professional football players compared with matched players without meniscal injury and identify characteristics associated with postinjury market value.Methods This retrospective cohort study analysed 80 meniscal injury episodes (74 players) recorded in Transfermarkt between 2006 and 2024. Market value was assessed during the preinjury season, injury year and annually for five subsequent years. Linear mixed-effects models evaluated longitudinal changes and associations with age, playing position and competitive level. Injury episodes identifiable in an openly available Transfermarkt-derived database were matched (1:2) to controls without recorded meniscal injury by position, competitive level, calendar year, age and preinjury market value. Covariate balance was assessed using standardised mean differences (SMDs), and trajectories were compared between groups.Results Mean age at injury was 25.05 ± 4.36 years, and mean absence was 103.87 ± 93.48 days. Market value increased at one (+25.61%; p = 0.023) and 2 years (+26.82%; p = 0.019) compared with preinjury values, before declining by 31.56% at 5 years (p = 0.001). Older age and lower competitive level were independently associated with lower market value. Among 64 matched injury episodes and 128 controls (all SMDs <0.15), market value declined in both groups over 5 years (-44.8% vs. -34.5%), without significant between-group differences at any time point (5-year difference, -15.7%; 95% CI, -39.2% to +16.8%; p = 0.30). Sensitivity analyses showed no significant additional decline among injured players.Conclusion Meniscal injuries were not associated with an immediate reduction in market value among professional football players. The long-term decline in market value did not differ significantly from that of matched players without meniscal injury and appeared largely to reflect the expected age-related evolution of player value; however, given the width of the confidence intervals and the absence of clinical detail, a moderate injury-related effect cannot be excluded.Level of evidence Level III, retrospective cohort study.
SN - 2197-1153
ER -