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Peer-reviewedCC BYNature Climate Change

Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk

  • Tim Raupach1,2,3,4
  • Raphael Portmann5,6
  • Christian Siderius7
  • Steven C. Sherwood1,2,3
7 affiliations
  1. 1ARC Centre of Excellence for 21st Century Weather, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  2. 2ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  3. 3Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  4. 4Institute for Climate Risk and Response, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
  5. 5Agroscope, Climate and Agriculture, Zurich, Switzerland
  6. 6Planval, Bern, Switzerland
  7. 7Uncharted Waters, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia
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Abstract

Hailstorms cause damage across the globe and endanger crops, but their changes in a warming climate are not well quantified. Here we apply three hail proxies to an ensemble of global model projections to show divergent changes in hail-prone condition frequency worldwide. Changes depend on whether the proxy allows instability increases to be offset by temperature or moisture increases. Uncertainty on hail projections remains high, especially in the tropics. In projections with 2 °C and 3 °C of mean global warming, ensemble-mean hail-prone conditions shifted polewards, with decreases in hail hazard in the mid-latitudes and increases in colder regions. Across 26 crop types with fixed exposure and vulnerability, hail risk was generally projected to increase for winter crops such as wheat and decrease for summer crops such as maize. Poleward shifts in hail hazard may attenuate yield increases from similar shifts in crop regions under climate change.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{raupach2026shifting,
  title = {{Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk}},
  author = {Tim Raupach and Raphael Portmann and Christian Siderius and Steven C. Sherwood},
  journal = {Nature Climate Change},
  year = {2026},
  month = jun,
  doi = {10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Shifting hail hazard under global warming and effects on crop hail risk
AU  - Tim Raupach
AU  - Raphael Portmann
AU  - Christian Siderius
AU  - Steven C. Sherwood
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/06/01
JO  - Nature Climate Change
DO  - 10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7
UR  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-026-02660-7
AB  - Hailstorms cause damage across the globe and endanger crops, but their changes in a warming climate are not well quantified. Here we apply three hail proxies to an ensemble of global model projections to show divergent changes in hail-prone condition frequency worldwide. Changes depend on whether the proxy allows instability increases to be offset by temperature or moisture increases. Uncertainty on hail projections remains high, especially in the tropics. In projections with 2 °C and 3 °C of mean global warming, ensemble-mean hail-prone conditions shifted polewards, with decreases in hail hazard in the mid-latitudes and increases in colder regions. Across 26 crop types with fixed exposure and vulnerability, hail risk was generally projected to increase for winter crops such as wheat and decrease for summer crops such as maize. Poleward shifts in hail hazard may attenuate yield increases from similar shifts in crop regions under climate change.
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
ER  -