Multi-breadbasket failures, climate change, and risks for crop prices and regional consumption
- 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
- 2University of Potsdam
- 3Columbia University
Abstract
Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of simultaneous crop failures across major producing regions, raising concerns about global food security. Whereas previous studies have mainly focused on production impacts, the resulting socio-economic consequences remain less explored. Here, we assess how climate-driven multi-breadbasket failures translate into systemic risks for global food prices and regional consumption. Driving the agent-based agricultural trade model Agrimate with probabilistic production failure scenarios for historical (2006–2015) and +2 ∘ C climate conditions, we show that climate change-driven increases in simultaneous production failures across global breadbasket regions lead to substantial increases in the likelihood of world market price spikes. The probability of exceeding a historical 90th percentile peak in bi-weekly prices nearly doubles for wheat and increases by factors of 2.70 and 2.45 for maize and soybean, respectively. These dynamics translates into increases in conditional consumption at risk of 0.24, 0.71, and 1.20 million calories per capita per year ( Mcal / capita / year ) for wheat, maize, and soybean, respectively. Historical regional consumption risks are highly heterogeneous, ranging from negligible impacts to over 20 Mcal / capita / year across all crops and exceeding 100 Mcal / capita / year in high-impact regions. These patterns reflect structural characteristics of the food system: production concentration, import dependencies, and small supplier base amplify risks, whereas higher stock-to-use ratios provide a buffer. In export-oriented regions, risks to domestic consumption can increase when, in the absence of protective policies, surging world market demand redirects supplies abroad. Climate change further compounds these structural vulnerabilities, leading to regional increases in consumption risk of up to 6 Mcal / capita / year in the most exposed areas. Together, these findings point toward the need for a coordinated policy agenda: diversifying production and trade, strengthening storage management, and implementing early-warning systems.
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BibTeX
@article{kuhla2026multibreadbasket,
title = {{Multi-breadbasket failures, climate change, and risks for crop prices and regional consumption}},
author = {Kilian Kuhla and Maria Goldrina and Michael J Puma and Yann Kinkel and Christian Otto},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aeae54},
url = {https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeae54},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Multi-breadbasket failures, climate change, and risks for crop prices and regional consumption
AU - Kilian Kuhla
AU - Maria Goldrina
AU - Michael J Puma
AU - Yann Kinkel
AU - Christian Otto
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/08
JO - Environmental Research Letters
DO - 10.1088/1748-9326/aeae54
UR - https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aeae54
AB - Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of simultaneous crop failures across major producing regions, raising concerns about global food security. Whereas previous studies have mainly focused on production impacts, the resulting socio-economic consequences remain less explored. Here, we assess how climate-driven multi-breadbasket failures translate into systemic risks for global food prices and regional consumption. Driving the agent-based agricultural trade model Agrimate with probabilistic production failure scenarios for historical (2006–2015) and +2 ∘ C climate conditions, we show that climate change-driven increases in simultaneous production failures across global breadbasket regions lead to substantial increases in the likelihood of world market price spikes. The probability of exceeding a historical 90th percentile peak in bi-weekly prices nearly doubles for wheat and increases by factors of 2.70 and 2.45 for maize and soybean, respectively. These dynamics translates into increases in conditional consumption at risk of 0.24, 0.71, and 1.20 million calories per capita per year ( Mcal / capita / year ) for wheat, maize, and soybean, respectively. Historical regional consumption risks are highly heterogeneous, ranging from negligible impacts to over 20 Mcal / capita / year across all crops and exceeding 100 Mcal / capita / year in high-impact regions. These patterns reflect structural characteristics of the food system: production concentration, import dependencies, and small supplier base amplify risks, whereas higher stock-to-use ratios provide a buffer. In export-oriented regions, risks to domestic consumption can increase when, in the absence of protective policies, surging world market demand redirects supplies abroad. Climate change further compounds these structural vulnerabilities, leading to regional increases in consumption risk of up to 6 Mcal / capita / year in the most exposed areas. Together, these findings point toward the need for a coordinated policy agenda: diversifying production and trade, strengthening storage management, and implementing early-warning systems.
SN - 1748-9326
ER -