Global ice loss drives source-independent amplification of sea-level rise at Pacific and Indian Ocean Small Island Developing States
Abstract
We quantify the spatial pattern (“fingerprint”) of sea-level rise caused by mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and from glaciers worldwide through 2100. Using ensembles of ice-sheet and glacier mass-balance projections and gravitational, rotational, and deformational sea-level modeling, we calculate normalized sea-level fingerprints and their impacts on Small Island Developing States. We show that Small Island Developing States in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are located within persistent sea-level-rise hotspots where the ice-melt contribution to local sea-level rise systematically exceeds the global mean by up to ~ 24%. This amplification emerges regardless of whether meltwater originates from Greenland, Antarctica, or the global glacier system. We identify a source-independent and geographically systematic amplification of sea-level rise affecting some of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations .
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BibTeX
@article{powell2026global,
title = {{Global ice loss drives source-independent amplification of sea-level rise at Pacific and Indian Ocean Small Island Developing States}},
author = {Robert S. Powell and Gabriel Cederberg and Sönke Dangendorf and Erica Lucas and Xiyuan Bao and Jessica R. Creveling and Julius Oelsmann and Stephen R. J. Tsuji and Leonard Tsuji and Jerry X. Mitrovica},
journal = {Communications Earth \& Environment},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-04132-4},
url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-04132-4},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Global ice loss drives source-independent amplification of sea-level rise at Pacific and Indian Ocean Small Island Developing States
AU - Robert S. Powell
AU - Gabriel Cederberg
AU - Sönke Dangendorf
AU - Erica Lucas
AU - Xiyuan Bao
AU - Jessica R. Creveling
AU - Julius Oelsmann
AU - Stephen R. J. Tsuji
AU - Leonard Tsuji
AU - Jerry X. Mitrovica
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/14
JO - Communications Earth & Environment
DO - 10.1038/s43247-026-04132-4
UR - https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-04132-4
AB - We quantify the spatial pattern (“fingerprint”) of sea-level rise caused by mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and from glaciers worldwide through 2100. Using ensembles of ice-sheet and glacier mass-balance projections and gravitational, rotational, and deformational sea-level modeling, we calculate normalized sea-level fingerprints and their impacts on Small Island Developing States. We show that Small Island Developing States in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are located within persistent sea-level-rise hotspots where the ice-melt contribution to local sea-level rise systematically exceeds the global mean by up to ~ 24%. This amplification emerges regardless of whether meltwater originates from Greenland, Antarctica, or the global glacier system. We identify a source-independent and geographically systematic amplification of sea-level rise affecting some of the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations .
SN - 2662-4435
ER -