Building archetypal load profiles for Ukrainian residential consumers: economic differentiation and demand side management potential
- 1Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
Abstract
Ukraine’s power system operates under severe constraints, with major generation losses, a residential demand share exceeding 50%, and frequent stabilization outages. Yet no residential interval load dataset exists, limiting the assessment of demand-side solutions. This paper tests whether hourly load profiles for Ukrainian households can be derived synthetically by filtering and reweighting NREL ResStock end-use load profiles to match Ukrainian conditions. The approach is “hybrid” in that calibration is performed not against smart-meter readings, as in standard bottom-up models, but against aggregated, country-level statistics. We combine statistics on consumption, housing-stock distributions, appliance ownership rates, and ResStock load profiles to define 19 residential segments. For each segment, we select a pool of compatible ResStock profiles and assign weights through quadratic optimisation to jointly match household counts, annual electricity use, and appliance ownership rates. This yields a library of synthetic archetypal residential hourly load profiles for Ukraine and reveals substantial heterogeneity in load shape among them. Using these profiles, the study also identifies an important weakness in the current residential tariff design: opt-in time-of-use tariffs capture little of this load-shape diversity, while offering households a substantial bill discount simply for switching from the flat tariff, thereby attenuating the incentive for active load shifting. The results provide a new synthetic basis for further research on demand-side management, tariff design, and distributed energy solutions in Ukraine, while highlighting the need for validation with real interval consumption data.
Accepted Manuscript. This article has been accepted for publication in Ekonomika (ISSN 2424-6166; eISSN 1392-1258), Issue 4, and is expected to be published in December 2026. This version has undergone peer review but has not undergone the journal’s final typesetting or pagination. The final bibliographic details and journal DOI will be added after publication.
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BibTeX
@misc{monakov2026building,
title = {{Building archetypal load profiles for Ukrainian residential consumers: economic differentiation and demand side management potential}},
author = {Dmytro Monakov},
howpublished = {Ekonomika},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.23434322},
url = {https://zenodo.org/records/23434322},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Building archetypal load profiles for Ukrainian residential consumers: economic differentiation and demand side management potential
AU - Dmytro Monakov
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/17
PB - Ekonomika
DO - 10.5281/zenodo.23434322
UR - https://zenodo.org/records/23434322
AB - Ukraine’s power system operates under severe constraints, with major generation losses, a residential demand share exceeding 50%, and frequent stabilization outages. Yet no residential interval load dataset exists, limiting the assessment of demand-side solutions. This paper tests whether hourly load profiles for Ukrainian households can be derived synthetically by filtering and reweighting NREL ResStock end-use load profiles to match Ukrainian conditions. The approach is “hybrid” in that calibration is performed not against smart-meter readings, as in standard bottom-up models, but against aggregated, country-level statistics. We combine statistics on consumption, housing-stock distributions, appliance ownership rates, and ResStock load profiles to define 19 residential segments. For each segment, we select a pool of compatible ResStock profiles and assign weights through quadratic optimisation to jointly match household counts, annual electricity use, and appliance ownership rates. This yields a library of synthetic archetypal residential hourly load profiles for Ukraine and reveals substantial heterogeneity in load shape among them. Using these profiles, the study also identifies an important weakness in the current residential tariff design: opt-in time-of-use tariffs capture little of this load-shape diversity, while offering households a substantial bill discount simply for switching from the flat tariff, thereby attenuating the incentive for active load shifting. The results provide a new synthetic basis for further research on demand-side management, tariff design, and distributed energy solutions in Ukraine, while highlighting the need for validation with real interval consumption data. Accepted Manuscript. This article has been accepted for publication in Ekonomika (ISSN 2424-6166; eISSN 1392-1258), Issue 4, and is expected to be published in December 2026. This version has undergone peer review but has not undergone the journal’s final typesetting or pagination. The final bibliographic details and journal DOI will be added after publication.
ER -