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PreprintCC BY 4.0arXiv

The Periodically Correlated Components of Measles in New York City using the Variable Band-pass Periodic Block Bootstrap

  • Anastazia Valachovic
  • Susan P. Opar
  • Edward Valachovic
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Abstract

Measles, a highly contagious, deadly virus, is at risk of losing its eradication status in the Unites States. Understanding the pattern, including seasonality, of measles could provide great benefit for forecasting, prevention, and public health preparedness as the virus re-emerges. The novel Variable Band-pass Periodic Block Bootstrap (VBPBB), which suppresses noise and interfering signals, is more efficient and statistically powerful to find periodic components compared to other existing methods. Using this method, we have found several significant periodic components in historical New York City measles cases which other methods were incapable of identifying. These findings give us a reusable method for understanding measles and other diseases and greater insight into what may occur should measles vaccine rates continue to fall.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{valachovic2026periodically,
  title = {{The Periodically Correlated Components of Measles in New York City using the Variable Band-pass Periodic Block Bootstrap}},
  author = {Anastazia Valachovic and Susan P. Opar and Edward Valachovic},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = sep,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2609.04604},
  eprint = {2609.04604},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04604},
  note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - The Periodically Correlated Components of Measles in New York City using the Variable Band-pass Periodic Block Bootstrap
AU  - Anastazia Valachovic
AU  - Susan P. Opar
AU  - Edward Valachovic
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/09/04
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2609.04604
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2609.04604
AB  - Measles, a highly contagious, deadly virus, is at risk of losing its eradication status in the Unites States. Understanding the pattern, including seasonality, of measles could provide great benefit for forecasting, prevention, and public health preparedness as the virus re-emerges. The novel Variable Band-pass Periodic Block Bootstrap (VBPBB), which suppresses noise and interfering signals, is more efficient and statistically powerful to find periodic components compared to other existing methods. Using this method, we have found several significant periodic components in historical New York City measles cases which other methods were incapable of identifying. These findings give us a reusable method for understanding measles and other diseases and greater insight into what may occur should measles vaccine rates continue to fall.
ER  -