Predicting Psychological Functioning in Polycrisis
Abstract
Recent global challenges—including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, geopolitical conflict, and climate-related threats—have intensified psychological strain. However, longitudinal evidence on how prolonged polycrisis interacts with individual psychopathological traits in emerging adults remains limited. This longitudinal study examined psychological functioning across two waves (T1–T2; N = 875; 78% female; age 18–30). Measures included polycrisis-related distress (IADQ, IADQ-Polycrisis), maladaptive personality traits (PiCD), mental health (MHC-SF), resilience (KOP-26), and quality of life (WHOQOL-BREF). We tested whether characteristics measured at T1 predict (a) levels of functioning at T2 and (b) changes over time using multiple linear regression, mixed-effects models, and random forest analyses. Across the one-year period, mean levels of polycrisis-related distress (IADQ-Polycrisis), perceived stress (PSS), and mental health (MHC) showed minimal change, indicating relative stability of psychological functioning. At the same time, results showed that personality traits and psychological resources significantly predict levels of functioning: negative affectivity (PiCD) was a strong predictor of polycrisis-related distress (β = 0.23, p < .001), dissociality showed a smaller positive effect (β = 0.08, p = .030), and resilience (KOP-P, KOP-26) showed a modest protective effect (β = −0.11, p = .009). However, models predicting change scores demonstrated minimal explanatory power, even with highly flexible models (random forests: R² ≈ 0.5–6.5% for IADQ-Polycrisis and MHC-SF, respectively). These findings indicate that psychological functioning during polycrisis is primarily driven by stable individual differences. Although some predictors show small effects on residual change, overall variability in change remains largely unexplained.
Key messages: • Psychological functioning during polycrisis is remarkably stable over time, with minimal changes in distress, stress, and mental health across one year.
• Personality traits and psychological resources predict who experiences higher distress—but not changes in distress over time.
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BibTeX
@article{gruszka2026predicting,
title = {{Predicting Psychological Functioning in Polycrisis}},
author = {A Gruszka and B Izydorczyk},
journal = {The European Journal of Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.355},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.355},
note = {CC BY-NC 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Predicting Psychological Functioning in Polycrisis
AU - A Gruszka
AU - B Izydorczyk
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/01
JO - The European Journal of Public Health
DO - 10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.355
UR - https://doi.org/10.1093/eurpub/ckag169.355
AB - Recent global challenges—including the COVID-19 pandemic, economic instability, geopolitical conflict, and climate-related threats—have intensified psychological strain. However, longitudinal evidence on how prolonged polycrisis interacts with individual psychopathological traits in emerging adults remains limited. This longitudinal study examined psychological functioning across two waves (T1–T2; N = 875; 78% female; age 18–30). Measures included polycrisis-related distress (IADQ, IADQ-Polycrisis), maladaptive personality traits (PiCD), mental health (MHC-SF), resilience (KOP-26), and quality of life (WHOQOL-BREF). We tested whether characteristics measured at T1 predict (a) levels of functioning at T2 and (b) changes over time using multiple linear regression, mixed-effects models, and random forest analyses. Across the one-year period, mean levels of polycrisis-related distress (IADQ-Polycrisis), perceived stress (PSS), and mental health (MHC) showed minimal change, indicating relative stability of psychological functioning. At the same time, results showed that personality traits and psychological resources significantly predict levels of functioning: negative affectivity (PiCD) was a strong predictor of polycrisis-related distress (β = 0.23, p < .001), dissociality showed a smaller positive effect (β = 0.08, p = .030), and resilience (KOP-P, KOP-26) showed a modest protective effect (β = −0.11, p = .009). However, models predicting change scores demonstrated minimal explanatory power, even with highly flexible models (random forests: R² ≈ 0.5–6.5% for IADQ-Polycrisis and MHC-SF, respectively). These findings indicate that psychological functioning during polycrisis is primarily driven by stable individual differences. Although some predictors show small effects on residual change, overall variability in change remains largely unexplained. Key messages: • Psychological functioning during polycrisis is remarkably stable over time, with minimal changes in distress, stress, and mental health across one year. • Personality traits and psychological resources predict who experiences higher distress—but not changes in distress over time.
SN - 1101-1262
SN - 1464-360X
ER -