A Multipatch Model for Evaluating Interdivisional Connectivity and Vaccination Dynamics in the 2026 Bangladesh Measles Outbreak
Abstract
The 2026 measles resurgence in Bangladesh motivates a spatial modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneous local transmission, vaccination activity, and interdivisional connectivity. We formulate a multipatch susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered model for the eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh. Division-specific parameters are estimated from reported measles cases \cite{DGHS} and smoothed vaccination data using bounded nonlinear least squares, with uncertainty quantified through 1000 parametric bootstrap replicates. The fitted divisional systems are then connected through compartment-specific movement and cross-patch infection coefficients adjusted for connectivity and the source division's relative reproduction number. The fitted model captures the main division-specific epidemic patterns. Estimated local reproduction numbers range from 1.1386 in Khulna (95\% CI:0.5703--1.3834) to 4.3491 in Dhaka (95\% CI: 1.4449--5.6307), while Chattogram also exhibits high transmission potential (ℛ0i=4.2275; 95\% CI: 4.0019--4.3185). Baseline spatial coupling increases the network-wide epidemic peak from 190.96 to 313.20 infectious individuals and more than doubles cumulative infections from 1086.42 to 2345.35. Relative to baseline coupling, 50\% and 80\% restrictions reduce the epidemic peak by 26.69% and 34.37%, and cumulative infections by 25.07% and 41.48%, respectively. Conversely, a 50\% increase in spatial coupling raises the peak by 30.14% and cumulative infections by 23.54%. Although local transmission remains dominant in every division, cross-patch infection accounts for 28.83% of new infections in Rajshahi at the baseline epidemic peak. Source-sink analysis identifies Dhaka as the dominant cross-patch source and Chattogram as a smaller secondary source.
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BibTeX
@misc{khondaker2026multipatch,
title = {{A Multipatch Model for Evaluating Interdivisional Connectivity and Vaccination Dynamics in the 2026 Bangladesh Measles Outbreak}},
author = {Faizunnesa Khondaker and Md. Kamrujjaman},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.18911},
eprint = {2610.18911},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18911},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - A Multipatch Model for Evaluating Interdivisional Connectivity and Vaccination Dynamics in the 2026 Bangladesh Measles Outbreak
AU - Faizunnesa Khondaker
AU - Md. Kamrujjaman
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/12
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.18911
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.18911
AB - The 2026 measles resurgence in Bangladesh motivates a spatial modelling framework that accounts for heterogeneous local transmission, vaccination activity, and interdivisional connectivity. We formulate a multipatch susceptible-vaccinated-infectious-recovered model for the eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh. Division-specific parameters are estimated from reported measles cases \cite{DGHS} and smoothed vaccination data using bounded nonlinear least squares, with uncertainty quantified through 1000 parametric bootstrap replicates. The fitted divisional systems are then connected through compartment-specific movement and cross-patch infection coefficients adjusted for connectivity and the source division's relative reproduction number. The fitted model captures the main division-specific epidemic patterns. Estimated local reproduction numbers range from 1.1386 in Khulna (95\% CI:0.5703--1.3834) to 4.3491 in Dhaka (95\% CI: 1.4449--5.6307), while Chattogram also exhibits high transmission potential (ℛ_0^i=4.2275; 95\% CI: 4.0019--4.3185). Baseline spatial coupling increases the network-wide epidemic peak from 190.96 to 313.20 infectious individuals and more than doubles cumulative infections from 1086.42 to 2345.35. Relative to baseline coupling, 50\% and 80\% restrictions reduce the epidemic peak by 26.69% and 34.37%, and cumulative infections by 25.07% and 41.48%, respectively. Conversely, a 50\% increase in spatial coupling raises the peak by 30.14% and cumulative infections by 23.54%. Although local transmission remains dominant in every division, cross-patch infection accounts for 28.83% of new infections in Rajshahi at the baseline epidemic peak. Source-sink analysis identifies Dhaka as the dominant cross-patch source and Chattogram as a smaller secondary source.
ER -