Climate shapes mosquito-borne disease transmission in africa: a scoping review of climatic determinants, biological responses and transmission dynamics
Abstract
Background: Mosquito-borne diseases remain a major public-health challenge in Africa, and their transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions. However, the evidence is geographically uneven and methodologically heterogeneous.
Objective: To map and synthesise evidence on the influence of temperature, rainfall/precipitation and relative humidity on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Africa, and to compare climatic patterns across major vector–pathogen systems.
Methods: A scoping review was conducted following PRISMA-ScR. Peer-reviewed primary studies conducted in Africa, or providing identifiable Africa-specific evidence, were included if they investigated malaria, dengue, chikungunya or Zika and assessed temperature, rainfall/precipitation and/or relative humidity in relation to biological, entomological, ecological, transmission-related or epidemiological outcomes.
Results: Eighteen primary studies were included: 10 on malaria, 6 on dengue and 2 on Zika; none specifically addressed chikungunya. Temperature was the most frequently assessed exposure. Malaria studies showed non-linear and context-dependent temperature relationships, including a field peak in malaria positivity near 25 °C. Dengue studies showed heterogeneous temperature signals, including stronger temperature–incidence relationships above approximately 21 °C and increased transmission-related outcomes around 29–30 °C in specific settings. Rainfall generally increased vector abundance or malaria transmission, although excessive rainfall sometimes reduced larval survival or dengue transmission. Relative humidity showed context-dependent effects, including trade-offs between Aedes aegypti survival and Zika virus infection. Reported climatic lags ranged mainly from one to four months.
Conclusion: Climatic influences on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Africa are non-linear, disease-specific and context-dependent. Stronger climate-informed surveillance and locally resolved integrated research are needed.
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BibTeX
@article{catumbela2026climate,
title = {{Climate shapes mosquito-borne disease transmission in africa: a scoping review of climatic determinants, biological responses and transmission dynamics}},
author = {Emanuel Catumbela and Wison Nelson Manuel Gonga and Semedo Faria},
journal = {BMC Public Health},
year = {2026},
month = nov,
doi = {10.1186/s12889-026-30373-1},
url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-026-30373-1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Climate shapes mosquito-borne disease transmission in africa: a scoping review of climatic determinants, biological responses and transmission dynamics
AU - Emanuel Catumbela
AU - Wison Nelson Manuel Gonga
AU - Semedo Faria
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/11/13
JO - BMC Public Health
DO - 10.1186/s12889-026-30373-1
UR - https://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12889-026-30373-1
AB - Background: Mosquito-borne diseases remain a major public-health challenge in Africa, and their transmission is strongly influenced by climatic conditions. However, the evidence is geographically uneven and methodologically heterogeneous. Objective: To map and synthesise evidence on the influence of temperature, rainfall/precipitation and relative humidity on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Africa, and to compare climatic patterns across major vector–pathogen systems. Methods: A scoping review was conducted following PRISMA-ScR. Peer-reviewed primary studies conducted in Africa, or providing identifiable Africa-specific evidence, were included if they investigated malaria, dengue, chikungunya or Zika and assessed temperature, rainfall/precipitation and/or relative humidity in relation to biological, entomological, ecological, transmission-related or epidemiological outcomes. Results: Eighteen primary studies were included: 10 on malaria, 6 on dengue and 2 on Zika; none specifically addressed chikungunya. Temperature was the most frequently assessed exposure. Malaria studies showed non-linear and context-dependent temperature relationships, including a field peak in malaria positivity near 25 °C. Dengue studies showed heterogeneous temperature signals, including stronger temperature–incidence relationships above approximately 21 °C and increased transmission-related outcomes around 29–30 °C in specific settings. Rainfall generally increased vector abundance or malaria transmission, although excessive rainfall sometimes reduced larval survival or dengue transmission. Relative humidity showed context-dependent effects, including trade-offs between Aedes aegypti survival and Zika virus infection. Reported climatic lags ranged mainly from one to four months. Conclusion: Climatic influences on mosquito-borne disease transmission in Africa are non-linear, disease-specific and context-dependent. Stronger climate-informed surveillance and locally resolved integrated research are needed.
SN - 1471-2458
ER -