Escalating soil CO ₂ degassing correlates with ground uplift and seismicity during the ongoing unrest of Campi Flegrei (2005–2025)
5 affiliations
- 1Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Sezione di Napoli, Napoli, Italy.
- 2Dipartimento di Fisica e Geologia, Università di Perugia, Perugia, Italy.
- 3Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
- 4Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Roma 1, Roma, Italy.
- 5Department of Environmental, Biological and Pharmaceutical Sciences and Technologies, University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli”, Caserta, Italy.
Abstract
The mechanism driving accelerating unrest at the densely populated Campi Flegrei caldera since 2005 remains debated. Analyzing an unprecedented two-decade geochemical dataset, we show that escalating soil CO 2 fluxes closely tracks caldera uplift, revealing magmatic fluid pressurization at 3- to 4-kilometer depth and heating as the fundamental driver of the unrest. A critical magmatic gas pulse occurred between 2018 and 2022 specifically focused this outgassing beneath the Solfatara crater. Thermodynamic modeling demonstrates that an increasing mass of ascending fluid pressurizes the hydrothermal system, forcing vapor condensation within the upper kilometer. This condensation transfers latent heat to the crust. We calculate that this released thermal energy is an order of magnitude greater than that required for the 1.6-meter uplift since 2005. Ultimately, this fluid pressurization and heating drive accelerating deformation and seismicity; alongside the 2021 emergence of seismic sequences with short inter-event times, it directly signals an escalating phreatic or magmatic eruption risk.
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BibTeX
@article{bini2026escalating,
title = {{Escalating soil CO ₂ degassing correlates with ground uplift and seismicity during the ongoing unrest of Campi Flegrei (2005–2025)}},
author = {Giulio Bini and Giovanni Chiodini and Rosario Avino and Alessandro Santi and Francesco Rufino and Carlo Cardellini and Giancarlo Tamburello and Tullio Ricci and Prospero De Martino and Antonio Carandente and Emilio Cuoco and Raffaella S. Iovine and Carmine Minopoli and Dmitri Rouwet and Alessandra Sciarra and Renato Palmieri and Mauro Tieri and Stefano Caliro},
journal = {Science Advances},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1126/sciadv.aei8075},
url = {https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aei8075},
note = {CC BY-NC},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Escalating soil CO ₂ degassing correlates with ground uplift and seismicity during the ongoing unrest of Campi Flegrei (2005–2025)
AU - Giulio Bini
AU - Giovanni Chiodini
AU - Rosario Avino
AU - Alessandro Santi
AU - Francesco Rufino
AU - Carlo Cardellini
AU - Giancarlo Tamburello
AU - Tullio Ricci
AU - Prospero De Martino
AU - Antonio Carandente
AU - Emilio Cuoco
AU - Raffaella S. Iovine
AU - Carmine Minopoli
AU - Dmitri Rouwet
AU - Alessandra Sciarra
AU - Renato Palmieri
AU - Mauro Tieri
AU - Stefano Caliro
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/09
JO - Science Advances
DO - 10.1126/sciadv.aei8075
UR - https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aei8075
AB - The mechanism driving accelerating unrest at the densely populated Campi Flegrei caldera since 2005 remains debated. Analyzing an unprecedented two-decade geochemical dataset, we show that escalating soil CO 2 fluxes closely tracks caldera uplift, revealing magmatic fluid pressurization at 3- to 4-kilometer depth and heating as the fundamental driver of the unrest. A critical magmatic gas pulse occurred between 2018 and 2022 specifically focused this outgassing beneath the Solfatara crater. Thermodynamic modeling demonstrates that an increasing mass of ascending fluid pressurizes the hydrothermal system, forcing vapor condensation within the upper kilometer. This condensation transfers latent heat to the crust. We calculate that this released thermal energy is an order of magnitude greater than that required for the 1.6-meter uplift since 2005. Ultimately, this fluid pressurization and heating drive accelerating deformation and seismicity; alongside the 2021 emergence of seismic sequences with short inter-event times, it directly signals an escalating phreatic or magmatic eruption risk.
SN - 2375-2548
ER -