Cumulative thermal stress predicts functional change in coral reef fish communities
5 affiliations
- 1The Environment Institute and School of Biological Sciences, Adelaide University, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
- 2Centre for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Capital Region of Denmark, Denmark
- 3Centre for Global Mountain Biodiversity, GLOBE Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Capital Region of Denmark, Denmark
- 4Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
- 5Aquatic Sciences, South Australian Research and Development Institute, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia
Abstract
Marine heatwaves are altering coral reef fish communities through a combination of direct impacts of thermal stress and indirect impacts that degrade coral habitats. Impacts may vary for species in different functional groups (e.g. herbivore replacement of corallivores), altering the functional composition of fish communities that is critical to reef resilience. However, our understanding of trait-based responses of fish communities to marine heatwaves is inadequate, and mostly inferred from local scales and low numbers of species. Here, we use a Bayesian joint species distribution model based on data for 500 fish species from 286 sites surveyed across northern Australia to evaluate the impacts of marine heatwaves on species probability of occurrence and their interactions with four functional traits. The effects of degree heating weeks and coral loss on individual species probability of occurrence had the highest total and proportionally negative responses, respectively. Thermal affinity's positive response to cumulative heat stress (i.e. degree heating weeks) was the strongest trait effect. Community-level analyses predicted losses in habitat specialists, large-bodied fishes, corallivores and pelagic feeders along a gradient of marine heatwave stress. The loss and restructuring of functional diversity suggest that heatwaves will continue eroding fish-dependent ecological roles and associated ecosystem services.
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BibTeX
@article{markey2026cumulative,
title = {{Cumulative thermal stress predicts functional change in coral reef fish communities}},
author = {Anthony C. Markey and Damien A. Fordham and Rick D. Stuart-Smith and Graham J. Edgar and Christopher J. Brown and Camille Mellin},
journal = {Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1098/rspb.2026.1955},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2026.1955},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Cumulative thermal stress predicts functional change in coral reef fish communities
AU - Anthony C. Markey
AU - Damien A. Fordham
AU - Rick D. Stuart-Smith
AU - Graham J. Edgar
AU - Christopher J. Brown
AU - Camille Mellin
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/21
JO - Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
DO - 10.1098/rspb.2026.1955
UR - https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2026.1955
AB - Marine heatwaves are altering coral reef fish communities through a combination of direct impacts of thermal stress and indirect impacts that degrade coral habitats. Impacts may vary for species in different functional groups (e.g. herbivore replacement of corallivores), altering the functional composition of fish communities that is critical to reef resilience. However, our understanding of trait-based responses of fish communities to marine heatwaves is inadequate, and mostly inferred from local scales and low numbers of species. Here, we use a Bayesian joint species distribution model based on data for 500 fish species from 286 sites surveyed across northern Australia to evaluate the impacts of marine heatwaves on species probability of occurrence and their interactions with four functional traits. The effects of degree heating weeks and coral loss on individual species probability of occurrence had the highest total and proportionally negative responses, respectively. Thermal affinity's positive response to cumulative heat stress (i.e. degree heating weeks) was the strongest trait effect. Community-level analyses predicted losses in habitat specialists, large-bodied fishes, corallivores and pelagic feeders along a gradient of marine heatwave stress. The loss and restructuring of functional diversity suggest that heatwaves will continue eroding fish-dependent ecological roles and associated ecosystem services.
SN - 0962-8452
SN - 1471-2954
ER -