Environmental and demographic determinants of Aedes albopictus seasonal activity in southern France: A modeling study
Abstract
The presence and the activity of Aedes albopictus are a growing concern for nuisance and public health in Europe. Despite an increasing number of entomological and modelling studies, our incomplete understanding of mosquito population response to weather drivers in natural conditions restricts the development of sound vector management policies. Here, we aim to explore the role of weather conditions on Ae. albopictus presence and abundance in four sites in southwestern France. We rely on ovitrap longitudinal records collected on a 1–2 weeks basis and weather time series over 2023 and 2024 to model oviposition activity. Our analysis combines a mechanistic model from literature and a machine learning model fitted on cross-correlated lagged weather predictors. Temperature showed a strong association with the presence of Ae. albopictus, and captured a substantial part of the interannual variation in oviposition across sites, particularly in spring and autumn. Warm springs and autumns extend the periods in which Ae. albopictus life-history traits (fertility, development, survival) approach their thermal optima. In summer, a more prominent role of rain and humidity emerges among secondary drivers of oviposition intensity. Both models satisfactorily reproduce the observed oviposition dynamics, correctly predicting the onset and the end of the activity – periods that existing models have often inadequately captured. This work will also contribute to conceiving and developing operational weather-driven forecasting tools for Ae. albopictus activity to support vector control operations in different biogeographical contexts. Author summary: Weather conditions are known to strongly influence Asian tiger mosquito populations dynamics, but their effects remain poorly quantified in southern France, particularly at spatial and temporal scales relevant for vector control. In this study, we monitored mosquito oviposition in four sites of southern France between 2023 and 2024 to understand the role of different weather parameters in shaping seasonal trends. The modelling approaches we used were able to reproduce the observed trends. Temperature appears to play a major role in shaping the presence and abundance of laid eggs, especially in spring and autumn. As global warming increases temperatures in such seasons, we suggest that length of the mosquito’s activity period is likely to increase in the future. Rainfall played as a secondary driver, limiting laid eggs abundance in hot dry periods. We believe this study will help to the development of operational tools for mosquito control operations.
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BibTeX
@article{taconet2026environmental,
title = {{Environmental and demographic determinants of Aedes albopictus seasonal activity in southern France: A modeling study}},
author = {Paul Taconet and Andrea Radici and Guillaume Lacour and Antoine Mignotte and Pachka Hammami and Didier Fontenille},
journal = {PLoS Computational Biology},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014799},
url = {https://hal.science/hal-05789107v1},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Environmental and demographic determinants of Aedes albopictus seasonal activity in southern France: A modeling study
AU - Paul Taconet
AU - Andrea Radici
AU - Guillaume Lacour
AU - Antoine Mignotte
AU - Pachka Hammami
AU - Didier Fontenille
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/10
JO - PLoS Computational Biology
DO - 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1014799
UR - https://hal.science/hal-05789107v1
AB - The presence and the activity of Aedes albopictus are a growing concern for nuisance and public health in Europe. Despite an increasing number of entomological and modelling studies, our incomplete understanding of mosquito population response to weather drivers in natural conditions restricts the development of sound vector management policies. Here, we aim to explore the role of weather conditions on Ae. albopictus presence and abundance in four sites in southwestern France. We rely on ovitrap longitudinal records collected on a 1–2 weeks basis and weather time series over 2023 and 2024 to model oviposition activity. Our analysis combines a mechanistic model from literature and a machine learning model fitted on cross-correlated lagged weather predictors. Temperature showed a strong association with the presence of Ae. albopictus, and captured a substantial part of the interannual variation in oviposition across sites, particularly in spring and autumn. Warm springs and autumns extend the periods in which Ae. albopictus life-history traits (fertility, development, survival) approach their thermal optima. In summer, a more prominent role of rain and humidity emerges among secondary drivers of oviposition intensity. Both models satisfactorily reproduce the observed oviposition dynamics, correctly predicting the onset and the end of the activity – periods that existing models have often inadequately captured. This work will also contribute to conceiving and developing operational weather-driven forecasting tools for Ae. albopictus activity to support vector control operations in different biogeographical contexts. Author summary: Weather conditions are known to strongly influence Asian tiger mosquito populations dynamics, but their effects remain poorly quantified in southern France, particularly at spatial and temporal scales relevant for vector control. In this study, we monitored mosquito oviposition in four sites of southern France between 2023 and 2024 to understand the role of different weather parameters in shaping seasonal trends. The modelling approaches we used were able to reproduce the observed trends. Temperature appears to play a major role in shaping the presence and abundance of laid eggs, especially in spring and autumn. As global warming increases temperatures in such seasons, we suggest that length of the mosquito’s activity period is likely to increase in the future. Rainfall played as a secondary driver, limiting laid eggs abundance in hot dry periods. We believe this study will help to the development of operational tools for mosquito control operations.
SN - 1553-734X
SN - 1553-7358
ER -