Scale- and genotype-dependent spatial concordance of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle and badgers

Abstract

Mycobacterium bovis causes tuberculosis (TB) in cattle, badgers (Meles meles), other wildlife, and humans, posing major animal and public health challenges in Britain and Ireland. Shared genotypes between cattle and badgers have been reported at regional scales, but whether this concordance holds at finer spatial scales, where control interventions operate, and whether it varies by genotype combination, remains unknown. Resolving this is critical for interpreting cross-species transmission risk and designing targeted control measures. We analyzed 1,248 M. bovis isolates from cattle and badgers (Northern Ireland, 1986-2018), including samples from a small, densely sampled intervention research area, using Multi-Locus Variable Number of Tandem Repeats Analysis (MLVA) and kernel discriminant analysis (KDA) across multiple spatial scales (25-95% density contours). We identified 36 MLVA types with four shared between species and one (MLV06) endemic to the area. Spatial concordance varied by type combination and scale: MLVA004-MLVA297 showed strong, bidirectional, scale-robust concordance; MLVA006-MLVA297 was concordant only at fine spatial scales; MLVA004-MLVA006 showed weak, asymmetric concordance; and no concordance was detected when all three types were analysed together. Our findings reveal spatial concordance between shared M. bovis genotypes varied by genotype combination and scale, indicating genotype-specific dynamics within this multi-host system.

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BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@misc{akhmetova2026scale,
  title = {{Scale- and genotype-dependent spatial concordance of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle and badgers}},
  author = {A. Akhmetova and L. C. M. Salvador and K. Oravcova and E. Presho and C. McComick and S. Thompson and L. Wright and F. Menzies and N. Trimble and R. Harwood and R. R. Kao and A. Allen and T. Pepler and R. Skuce},
  howpublished = {bioRxiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.64898/2026.10.01.756065},
  url = {https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.01.756065v1},
  note = {CC BY},
}

RIS

TY  - UNPB
TI  - Scale- and genotype-dependent spatial concordance of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle and badgers
AU  - A. Akhmetova
AU  - L. C. M. Salvador
AU  - K. Oravcova
AU  - E. Presho
AU  - C. McComick
AU  - S. Thompson
AU  - L. Wright
AU  - F. Menzies
AU  - N. Trimble
AU  - R. Harwood
AU  - R. R. Kao
AU  - A. Allen
AU  - T. Pepler
AU  - R. Skuce
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/01
PB  - bioRxiv
DO  - 10.64898/2026.10.01.756065
UR  - https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.10.01.756065v1
AB  - Mycobacterium bovis causes tuberculosis (TB) in cattle, badgers (Meles meles), other wildlife, and humans, posing major animal and public health challenges in Britain and Ireland. Shared genotypes between cattle and badgers have been reported at regional scales, but whether this concordance holds at finer spatial scales, where control interventions operate, and whether it varies by genotype combination, remains unknown. Resolving this is critical for interpreting cross-species transmission risk and designing targeted control measures. We analyzed 1,248 M. bovis isolates from cattle and badgers (Northern Ireland, 1986-2018), including samples from a small, densely sampled intervention research area, using Multi-Locus Variable Number of Tandem Repeats Analysis (MLVA) and kernel discriminant analysis (KDA) across multiple spatial scales (25-95% density contours). We identified 36 MLVA types with four shared between species and one (MLV06) endemic to the area. Spatial concordance varied by type combination and scale: MLVA004-MLVA297 showed strong, bidirectional, scale-robust concordance; MLVA006-MLVA297 was concordant only at fine spatial scales; MLVA004-MLVA006 showed weak, asymmetric concordance; and no concordance was detected when all three types were analysed together. Our findings reveal spatial concordance between shared M. bovis genotypes varied by genotype combination and scale, indicating genotype-specific dynamics within this multi-host system.
ER  -

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