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Peer-reviewedCC BY-NC-NDBMC pregnancy and childbirth

Derivation of a risk model to predict urinary incontinence during pregnancy: a research article.

  • Alícia Carrera-Boix1
  • Jordi Cassadó Garriga2
  • Jordi Blanch3,4
  • Lia Alves-Cabratosa3,4
  • Anna Ponjoan3,4,5
  • Ruth Martí-Lluch3,4,5
  • Rafel Ramos Blanes6,7,8,9,10
10 affiliations
  1. 1Obstetrics and Gynecology Department, Hospital Santa Caterina. Institut d'Assistència Santiària (IAS), Salt, Catalunya, Spain.
  2. 2Obstetrics and Gynecology Department, University Hospital Mutua Terrassa, Terrassa, Catalunya, Spain.
  3. 3ISV Girona. Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol (IDIAP Jordi Gol), Girona, Catalunya, Spain.
  4. 4Network for Research on Chronicity, Primary Care, and Health Promotion (RICAPPS), Girona, Catalunya, Spain.
  5. 5Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica de Girona (IdIBGi), Girona, Catalunya, Spain.
  6. 6ISV Girona. Institut Universitari d'Investigació en Atenció Primària Jordi Gol (IDIAP Jordi Gol), Girona, Catalunya, Spain. [email protected].
  7. 7Network for Research on Chronicity, Primary Care, and Health Promotion (RICAPPS), Girona, Catalunya, Spain. [email protected].
  8. 8Institut d'Investigació Biomèdica de Girona (IdIBGi), Girona, Catalunya, Spain. [email protected].
  9. 9Departament de Ciències Mèdiques, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Catalunya, Spain. [email protected].
  10. 10Serveis d'Atenció Primària, Institut Català de Salut (ICS), Girona, Girona, Catalunya, Spain. [email protected].
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Abstract

Background

The onset of urinary incontinence (UI) during pregnancy is related to urinary incontinence persistence in the postpartum and later years. We aimed to design a prediction model of urinary incontinence that could be used at the beginning of pregnancy and included clinical and ultrasound variables.Materials and methods

Design: Prospective cohort study.Settings

Obstetrics and Gynecology Service of Santa Caterina's Hospital (Girona, Spain) between 2018 and 2020.Population

Women at 12-14 weeks' gestation were invited to participate by consecutive sampling and a follow-up visit was carried out at 32-35 pregnancy weeks.Methods

During the visits, we collected clinical data, measured 2D ultrasound variables, and administered the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire (ICIQ-SF). We built a multivariable model to predict urinary incontinence, assessed its calibration and discrimination (with the area under the ROC curve), and performed an internal validation. All the analyses were carried out using the R software (version 4.1).Results

We recruited 174 nulliparous pregnant women during the study period and designed two models to predict urinary incontinence based on the significant variables in the univariate analysis: the urethral mobility and body mass index (BMI). The OR (95% CI) for the BMI category > 30 kg/m2 was 4.24 (1.48-12.30) in the first model (introital urethral mobility and BMI) and 3.31 (1.13-9.62) in the second model (transperineal urethral mobility and BMI). The area under the ROC curve was 0.725 for the first model and 0.687 for the second model. These models were used to create an online urinary incontinence prediction calculator.Conclusion

We built two multivariable models to predict, at the beginning of pregnancy, the individual risk of each pregnant woman to develop moderate/severe urinary incontinence in the third trimester. These models may provide a foundation for the future development of tailored primary prevention strategies.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{carreraboix2026derivation,
  title = {{Derivation of a risk model to predict urinary incontinence during pregnancy: a research article.}},
  author = {Alícia Carrera-Boix and Jordi Cassadó Garriga and Jordi Blanch and Lia Alves-Cabratosa and Anna Ponjoan and Ruth Martí-Lluch and Rafel Ramos Blanes},
  journal = {BMC pregnancy and childbirth},
  year = {2026},
  month = jul,
  doi = {10.1186/s12884-026-09654-5},
  url = {https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42902209},
  note = {CC BY-NC-ND},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Derivation of a risk model to predict urinary incontinence during pregnancy: a research article.
AU  - Alícia Carrera-Boix
AU  - Jordi Cassadó Garriga
AU  - Jordi Blanch
AU  - Lia Alves-Cabratosa
AU  - Anna Ponjoan
AU  - Ruth Martí-Lluch
AU  - Rafel Ramos Blanes
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/07/01
JO  - BMC pregnancy and childbirth
DO  - 10.1186/s12884-026-09654-5
UR  - https://europepmc.org/article/MED/42902209
AB  - Background  The onset of urinary incontinence (UI) during pregnancy is related to urinary incontinence persistence in the postpartum and later years. We aimed to design a prediction model of urinary incontinence that could be used at the beginning of pregnancy and included clinical and ultrasound variables.Materials and methods  Design: Prospective cohort study.Settings  Obstetrics and Gynecology Service of Santa Caterina's Hospital (Girona, Spain) between 2018 and 2020.Population  Women at 12-14 weeks' gestation were invited to participate by consecutive sampling and a follow-up visit was carried out at 32-35 pregnancy weeks.Methods  During the visits, we collected clinical data, measured 2D ultrasound variables, and administered the International Consultation on Incontinence Questionnaire (ICIQ-SF). We built a multivariable model to predict urinary incontinence, assessed its calibration and discrimination (with the area under the ROC curve), and performed an internal validation. All the analyses were carried out using the R software (version 4.1).Results  We recruited 174 nulliparous pregnant women during the study period and designed two models to predict urinary incontinence based on the significant variables in the univariate analysis: the urethral mobility and body mass index (BMI). The OR (95% CI) for the BMI category > 30 kg/m2 was 4.24 (1.48-12.30) in the first model (introital urethral mobility and BMI) and 3.31 (1.13-9.62) in the second model (transperineal urethral mobility and BMI). The area under the ROC curve was 0.725 for the first model and 0.687 for the second model. These models were used to create an online urinary incontinence prediction calculator.Conclusion  We built two multivariable models to predict, at the beginning of pregnancy, the individual risk of each pregnant woman to develop moderate/severe urinary incontinence in the third trimester. These models may provide a foundation for the future development of tailored primary prevention strategies.
SN  - 1471-2393
ER  -