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Peer-reviewedCC BYGeoscientific model development

Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)

  • Katja Frieler1,2,3,4
  • Stefan Lange3
  • Jacob Schewe3
  • Matthias Mengel3
  • Simon Treu5,3,4
  • Christian Otto3
  • Jan Volkholz3
  • Christopher Reyer3
  • Stefanie Heinicke3
  • Colin Jones6
  • Julia L. Blanchard7
  • Cheryl Shannon Harrison8
49 more authors
  • Colleen M. Petrik9
  • Tyler D. Eddy10,11
  • Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros12
  • Camilla Novaglio7
  • Ryan Heneghan13
  • Derek P. Tittensor14
  • Maury Olivier15
  • Matthias Büchner3
  • Thomas Vogt3
  • Dánnell Quesada‐Chacón3
  • Kerry Emanuel16
  • Chia‐Ying Lee17
  • Suzana J. Camargo18,17
  • Linn Hamester3,18,19
  • Jonas Jägermeyr18,19,3,20,21,22
  • Sam S. Rabin23,21,24,3
  • Jochen Klar3
  • Iliusi Vega del Valle3
  • Lisa Novak3
  • Inga Sauer3,25
  • Gitta Lasslop25,26
  • Sarah Chadburn26,27
  • Eleanor Burke27,28
  • Angela V. Gallego-Sala28,29
  • Noah Smith29,30
  • Jinfeng Chang30,31
  • Stijn Hantson31,27
  • Chantelle Burton27,3
  • Anne Gädeke3,32
  • Simon Newland Gosling32,33
  • Simon Newland Gosling33,34,25
  • Hannes Müller Schmied35,36,3
  • Fred Fokko Hattermann3,25
  • Thomas Hickler25,37
  • Rafael Marcé37,38
  • Don Pierson39,40
  • Wim Thiery37
  • Daniel Mercado‐Bettín37
  • Robert Ladwig38
  • Ana I. Ayala39,25
  • Matthew Forrest25
  • Michel Bechtold
  • Robert Reinecke
  • Inge E. M. de Graaf
  • Jed Oliver Kaplan
  • Alexander Koch15
  • Matthieu Lengaigne15
  • Rohini Kumar

60 listed; 61 in total.

40 affiliations
  1. 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (Potsdam, Germany)
  2. 2University of Potsdam (Potsdam, Germany)
  3. 3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  4. 4University of Potsdam, Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
  5. 5Institute for Environmental Science and Geography, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
  6. 6National Centre for Atmospheric Science and School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS29JT, UK
  7. 7Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  8. 8Department of Ocean and Coastal Science and Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, Louisiana, USA
  9. 9Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, CA, USA
  10. 10Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, School of Fisheries, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada
  11. 11Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries & Marine Institute, Memorial University, St. John's, NL, Canada
  12. 12Marine and Antarctic Research for Innovation and Sustainability, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, Cape Town, 7701, South Africa
  13. 13School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
  14. 14Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 4R2, Canada
  15. 15IRD, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, INRAE, MARBEC, Sète, France
  16. 16Lorenz Center, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
  17. 17Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York, USA
  18. 18Columbia Climate School, Columbia University, New York, NY 10025, USA
  19. 19NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA
  20. 20Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO 80302, USA
  21. 21formerly at: Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA
  22. 22formerly at: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch‐Partenkirchen, Germany
  23. 23CGD, National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO 80302, USA
  24. 24formerly at: Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
  25. 25Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany
  26. 26Department of Mathematics, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
  27. 27Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, UK
  28. 28Geography Department, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK
  29. 29College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
  30. 30College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
  31. 31Faculty of Natural Sciences, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia
  32. 32International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  33. 33School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK
  34. 34Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany
  35. 35Institute of Physical Geography , Goethe University Frankfurt , Frankfurt am Main , Germany
  36. 36Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F) , Frankfurt am Main , Germany
  37. 37Blanes Centre for Advanced Studies (CEAB-CSIC), Blanes, Spain
  38. 38Department of Ecology and Genetics , Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18 D, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
  39. 39Department of Ecology and Genetics, Uppsala University, Norbyvägen 18 D, 752 36 Uppsala, Sweden
  40. 40Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Water and Climate, Brussels, Belgium
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Abstract

This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs) provided within the 'b' part of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). While ISIMIP3a comprises historical impact models simulations forced by observational CRF and direct human forcings (DHF), the ISIMIP3b CRFs are based on climate model simulations generated within the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In a first set of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group I) the CMIP6-based CRFs for the historical period are combined with historical observation-based DHF also considered in ISIMIP3a (e.g. land use patterns, water and agricultural management, and fishing efforts). These group I simulations allow for the quantification of impacts of historical climate change by comparison to simulations where the observational DHF are combined with simulated pre-industrial CRFs. In addition, the impacts of observed changes in CRFs can be compared to the impacts of simulated changes in CRFs by comparing the ISIMIP3a simulations to the ISIMIP3b, group I simulations. The second group of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group II) comprises future projections assuming constant observational direct human forcings at 2015 levels to estimate the impact of climate change given today’s direct human influences for the low emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the high and the very high emission scenarios SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, respectively. The very high emissions scenarios and the assumption of fixed present day direct human forcings particularly allow for testing the scalability of impacts in terms of global temperature change. The provided CRFs comprise atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, atmospheric and oceanic climate data, coastal water levels, tropical cyclone tracks and their associated wind speed and precipitation fields. In addition to the CRFs data, this paper describes the experiments belonging to group I and II and the rationale behind them. Another set of future projections accounting for changing DHFs (ISIMIP3b, group III) is in preparation and will be described in another paper.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@article{frieler2026scenario,
  title = {{Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)}},
  author = {Katja Frieler and Stefan Lange and Jacob Schewe and Matthias Mengel and Simon Treu and Christian Otto and Jan Volkholz and Christopher Reyer and Stefanie Heinicke and Colin Jones and Julia L. Blanchard and Cheryl Shannon Harrison and Colleen M. Petrik and Tyler D. Eddy and Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros and Camilla Novaglio and Ryan Heneghan and Derek P. Tittensor and Maury Olivier and Matthias Büchner and Thomas Vogt and Dánnell Quesada‐Chacón and Kerry Emanuel and Chia‐Ying Lee and Suzana J. Camargo and Linn Hamester and Jonas Jägermeyr and Sam S. Rabin and Jochen Klar and Iliusi Vega del Valle and Lisa Novak and Inga Sauer and Gitta Lasslop and Sarah Chadburn and Eleanor Burke and Angela V. Gallego-Sala and Noah Smith and Jinfeng Chang and Stijn Hantson and Chantelle Burton and Anne Gädeke and Simon Newland Gosling and Simon Newland Gosling and Hannes Müller Schmied and Fred Fokko Hattermann and Thomas Hickler and Rafael Marcé and Don Pierson and Wim Thiery and Daniel Mercado‐Bettín and Robert Ladwig and Ana I. Ayala and Matthew Forrest and Michel Bechtold and Robert Reinecke and Inge E. M. de Graaf and Jed Oliver Kaplan and Alexander Koch and Matthieu Lengaigne and Rohini Kumar},
  journal = {Geoscientific model development},
  year = {2026},
  month = may,
  doi = {10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026},
  note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY  - JOUR
TI  - Scenario set-up and the new CMIP6-based climate-related forcings provided within the third round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b, group I and II)
AU  - Katja Frieler
AU  - Stefan Lange
AU  - Jacob Schewe
AU  - Matthias Mengel
AU  - Simon Treu
AU  - Christian Otto
AU  - Jan Volkholz
AU  - Christopher Reyer
AU  - Stefanie Heinicke
AU  - Colin Jones
AU  - Julia L. Blanchard
AU  - Cheryl Shannon Harrison
AU  - Colleen M. Petrik
AU  - Tyler D. Eddy
AU  - Kelly Ortega‐Cisneros
AU  - Camilla Novaglio
AU  - Ryan Heneghan
AU  - Derek P. Tittensor
AU  - Maury Olivier
AU  - Matthias Büchner
AU  - Thomas Vogt
AU  - Dánnell Quesada‐Chacón
AU  - Kerry Emanuel
AU  - Chia‐Ying Lee
AU  - Suzana J. Camargo
AU  - Linn Hamester
AU  - Jonas Jägermeyr
AU  - Sam S. Rabin
AU  - Jochen Klar
AU  - Iliusi Vega del Valle
AU  - Lisa Novak
AU  - Inga Sauer
AU  - Gitta Lasslop
AU  - Sarah Chadburn
AU  - Eleanor Burke
AU  - Angela V. Gallego-Sala
AU  - Noah Smith
AU  - Jinfeng Chang
AU  - Stijn Hantson
AU  - Chantelle Burton
AU  - Anne Gädeke
AU  - Simon Newland Gosling
AU  - Simon Newland Gosling
AU  - Hannes Müller Schmied
AU  - Fred Fokko Hattermann
AU  - Thomas Hickler
AU  - Rafael Marcé
AU  - Don Pierson
AU  - Wim Thiery
AU  - Daniel Mercado‐Bettín
AU  - Robert Ladwig
AU  - Ana I. Ayala
AU  - Matthew Forrest
AU  - Michel Bechtold
AU  - Robert Reinecke
AU  - Inge E. M. de Graaf
AU  - Jed Oliver Kaplan
AU  - Alexander Koch
AU  - Matthieu Lengaigne
AU  - Rohini Kumar
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/19
JO  - Geoscientific model development
DO  - 10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026
UR  - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-19-4095-2026
AB  - This paper describes the climate-related forcings (CRFs) provided within the 'b' part of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). While ISIMIP3a comprises historical impact models simulations forced by observational CRF and direct human forcings (DHF), the ISIMIP3b CRFs are based on climate model simulations generated within the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In a first set of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group I) the CMIP6-based CRFs for the historical period are combined with historical observation-based DHF also considered in ISIMIP3a (e.g. land use patterns, water and agricultural management, and fishing efforts). These group I simulations allow for the quantification of impacts of historical climate change by comparison to simulations where the observational DHF are combined with simulated pre-industrial CRFs. In addition, the impacts of observed changes in CRFs can be compared to the impacts of simulated changes in CRFs by comparing the ISIMIP3a simulations to the ISIMIP3b, group I simulations. The second group of experiments (ISIMIP3b, group II) comprises future projections assuming constant observational direct human forcings at 2015 levels to estimate the impact of climate change given today’s direct human influences for the low emission scenario SSP1-2.6, the high and the very high emission scenarios SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5, respectively. The very high emissions scenarios and the assumption of fixed present day direct human forcings particularly allow for testing the scalability of impacts in terms of global temperature change. The provided CRFs comprise atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations, atmospheric and oceanic climate data, coastal water levels, tropical cyclone tracks and their associated wind speed and precipitation fields. In addition to the CRFs data, this paper describes the experiments belonging to group I and II and the rationale behind them. Another set of future projections accounting for changing DHFs (ISIMIP3b, group III) is in preparation and will be described in another paper.
SN  - 1991-959X
SN  - 1991-9603
ER  -