Peer-reviewedCC BYFrontiers in Climate23 Oct 2026

Assessment of tropical cyclone vulnerability of coastal communities in Mtwara Municipal Council, Tanzania: a Composite Vulnerability Index approach

Denis S. Ndenzako¹
Denis S. Ndenzako²
Noah Makula Pauline¹
Joel Nobert¹
Catherine Aloyce Masao¹
Edmund B. Mabhuye¹
Joseph Perfect¹

¹Institute of Resource Assessment (IRA), University of Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
²Central Forecasting Office, Tanzania Meteorological Authority, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Abstract

Coastal communities in Mtwara Municipal Council, Tanzania, face increasing tropical cyclone (TC) risk, yet their multidimensional vulnerability has not been quantified. This study assessed TC vulnerability using the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework integrating exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components. Primary data from 100 households selected using randomly generated survey locations across Mtwara Municipal Council were combined with December 2025 remote-sensing and geospatial data. A total of 77 indicators were transformed, normalized, and aggregated within thematic groups to derive the Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity sub-indices and the Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI). The municipality recorded medium overall vulnerability (CVI = 0.472), comprising high exposure (E = 0.639), medium sensitivity (S = 0.377), and high adaptive capacity (AC = 0.601). The vulnerability profile was characterized by strong physical and socio-cultural exposure and education, employment, and food-security sensitivity, partly moderated by reported climate awareness, information access, and other adaptive-capacity conditions. The findings support municipal land-use planning, early-warning communication, evacuation planning, livelihood diversification, and targeted resilience investment. The municipality-level assessment provides a baseline for disaster management, resilience planning, and emergency preparedness.

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Cite

BibTeX RIS

BibTeX

@article{ndenzako2026assessment,
  title = {{Assessment of tropical cyclone vulnerability of coastal communities in Mtwara Municipal Council, Tanzania: a Composite Vulnerability Index approach}},
  author = {Denis S. Ndenzako and Denis S. Ndenzako and Noah Makula Pauline and Joel Nobert and Catherine Aloyce Masao and Edmund B. Mabhuye and Joseph Perfect},
  journal = {Frontiers in Climate},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.3389/fclim.2026.1970749},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2026.1970749},
  note = {CC BY},
}

RIS

TY  - JOUR
TI  - Assessment of tropical cyclone vulnerability of coastal communities in Mtwara Municipal Council, Tanzania: a Composite Vulnerability Index approach
AU  - Denis S. Ndenzako
AU  - Denis S. Ndenzako
AU  - Noah Makula Pauline
AU  - Joel Nobert
AU  - Catherine Aloyce Masao
AU  - Edmund B. Mabhuye
AU  - Joseph Perfect
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/23
JO  - Frontiers in Climate
DO  - 10.3389/fclim.2026.1970749
UR  - https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2026.1970749
AB  - Coastal communities in Mtwara Municipal Council, Tanzania, face increasing tropical cyclone (TC) risk, yet their multidimensional vulnerability has not been quantified. This study assessed TC vulnerability using the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change framework integrating exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components. Primary data from 100 households selected using randomly generated survey locations across Mtwara Municipal Council were combined with December 2025 remote-sensing and geospatial data. A total of 77 indicators were transformed, normalized, and aggregated within thematic groups to derive the Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity sub-indices and the Composite Vulnerability Index (CVI). The municipality recorded medium overall vulnerability (CVI = 0.472), comprising high exposure (E = 0.639), medium sensitivity (S = 0.377), and high adaptive capacity (AC = 0.601). The vulnerability profile was characterized by strong physical and socio-cultural exposure and education, employment, and food-security sensitivity, partly moderated by reported climate awareness, information access, and other adaptive-capacity conditions. The findings support municipal land-use planning, early-warning communication, evacuation planning, livelihood diversification, and targeted resilience investment. The municipality-level assessment provides a baseline for disaster management, resilience planning, and emergency preparedness.
SN  - 2624-9553
ER  -

Abstract

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