The spatial structure of dengue transmission in Kamphaeng Phet Thailand
8 affiliations
- 1Department of Genetics, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom
- 2Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi, Thailand
- 3Viral Diseases Program, Walter Reed Army Institute of Research, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
- 4Department of Virology, Armed Forces Institute of Medical Sciences (AFRIMS), Bangkok, Thailand
- 5Institute of Cell Biology, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria
- 6Department of epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- 7Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins Whiting School of Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America
- 8Department of Microbiology and Immunology, SUNY Upstate Medical University, Syracuse, New York, United States of America
Abstract
Background: Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito transmitted arbovirus that represents a severe threat to global populations. The four serotypes of DENV often circulate endemically resulting in many discrete but overlapping transmission chains in space and time, effectively hiding the underlying patterns of transmission, and longer term consequences on local population immunity. Here we combined serotyped case data with sequence data from a single setting over 25 years to characterise the spatial dependence between cases, the number of distinct transmission chains circulating at any time and whether community transmission was followed by serotype-specific local herd immunity. Methodology/principal findings: In this study, we combined geolocated case data (N = 7,487) from individuals that presented at a provincial hospital in Kamphaeng Phet Province, Thailand alongside a subset of the sequences of the viruses (N = 302) that infected them. We estimated the spatial dependence between case pairs over different temporal and spatial windows, using both serotype and sequence data, and used logistic regression to identify whether host population size or epidemic size were correlated with viral diversity. We found there was spatial dependence between cases at up to 5 km, resulting in localised serotype-specific patterns of immunity in subsequent years. Within a 78.5 km2 area there were 9.6 distinct transmission chains at any time and that each 100,000 increase in population size was associated with 9.8 additional chains. While local viral diversity was also correlated with the size of the epidemic within any month, we found diversity only had moderate predictive power to accurately recover epidemic dynamics. Conclusions/significance: These findings highlight the nuanced and spatially variable ecology of a highly endemic pathogen with substantial immunity. This study also illustrates the strengths of combining multiple data sources to shed light on the nature of DENV transmission. Author summary: Dengue virus represents a severe threat to the global population. There are four serotypes of the virus, which often co-circulate in endemic populations. Within any location, there are many overlapping chains of transmission, which makes it difficult to understand the true patterns of transmission and how it links to the spread of the virus. This in turn limits the effectiveness of various interventions to curb the spread of the virus. To fill this knowledge barrier, we apply statistical methods to geocoded and serotyped case data from a 25 year period from the same community, alongside sequenced viruses, to understand the factors that shape transmission and how it changes over time. Through this, we found that the range of transmission is limited to distances of 5km. This transmission leads to the build-up of patchwork immunity to the virus which in turn shapes future transmission. These findings have thus uncovered the transmission patterns hidden by constant circulation of the virus. These results will help guide public health policy with regards to the implementation of spatially-targeted interventions.
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BibTeX
@article{ooi2026spatial,
title = {{The spatial structure of dengue transmission in Kamphaeng Phet Thailand}},
author = {Sarah H. Ooi and Angkana T. Huang and Surachai Kaewhiran and Aaron Farmer and Darunee Buddhari and Tao Li and Jaykumar Gandhi and Adam R. Pollio and Jun Hang and Matthew A. Conte and Derek A. T. Cummings and Kathryn Anderson and Henrik Salje},
journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
year = {2026},
month = aug,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0014605},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014605},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - The spatial structure of dengue transmission in Kamphaeng Phet Thailand
AU - Sarah H. Ooi
AU - Angkana T. Huang
AU - Surachai Kaewhiran
AU - Aaron Farmer
AU - Darunee Buddhari
AU - Tao Li
AU - Jaykumar Gandhi
AU - Adam R. Pollio
AU - Jun Hang
AU - Matthew A. Conte
AU - Derek A. T. Cummings
AU - Kathryn Anderson
AU - Henrik Salje
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/08/31
JO - PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0014605
UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014605
AB - Background: Dengue virus (DENV) is a mosquito transmitted arbovirus that represents a severe threat to global populations. The four serotypes of DENV often circulate endemically resulting in many discrete but overlapping transmission chains in space and time, effectively hiding the underlying patterns of transmission, and longer term consequences on local population immunity. Here we combined serotyped case data with sequence data from a single setting over 25 years to characterise the spatial dependence between cases, the number of distinct transmission chains circulating at any time and whether community transmission was followed by serotype-specific local herd immunity. Methodology/principal findings: In this study, we combined geolocated case data (N = 7,487) from individuals that presented at a provincial hospital in Kamphaeng Phet Province, Thailand alongside a subset of the sequences of the viruses (N = 302) that infected them. We estimated the spatial dependence between case pairs over different temporal and spatial windows, using both serotype and sequence data, and used logistic regression to identify whether host population size or epidemic size were correlated with viral diversity. We found there was spatial dependence between cases at up to 5 km, resulting in localised serotype-specific patterns of immunity in subsequent years. Within a 78.5 km2 area there were 9.6 distinct transmission chains at any time and that each 100,000 increase in population size was associated with 9.8 additional chains. While local viral diversity was also correlated with the size of the epidemic within any month, we found diversity only had moderate predictive power to accurately recover epidemic dynamics. Conclusions/significance: These findings highlight the nuanced and spatially variable ecology of a highly endemic pathogen with substantial immunity. This study also illustrates the strengths of combining multiple data sources to shed light on the nature of DENV transmission. Author summary: Dengue virus represents a severe threat to the global population. There are four serotypes of the virus, which often co-circulate in endemic populations. Within any location, there are many overlapping chains of transmission, which makes it difficult to understand the true patterns of transmission and how it links to the spread of the virus. This in turn limits the effectiveness of various interventions to curb the spread of the virus. To fill this knowledge barrier, we apply statistical methods to geocoded and serotyped case data from a 25 year period from the same community, alongside sequenced viruses, to understand the factors that shape transmission and how it changes over time. Through this, we found that the range of transmission is limited to distances of 5km. This transmission leads to the build-up of patchwork immunity to the virus which in turn shapes future transmission. These findings have thus uncovered the transmission patterns hidden by constant circulation of the virus. These results will help guide public health policy with regards to the implementation of spatially-targeted interventions.
SN - 1935-2735
ER -