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Intermediate States in Chaotic Triple Evolution and Applications to Black Hole Merger Statistics

  • Dina Meylakh
  • Nicholas C. Stone
  • Nathan W. C. Leigh
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Abstract

Three-body interactions exhibit phases of strong chaotic evolution as well as hierarchical motion where one body separates from a binary and follows a hyperbolic or elliptic trajectory around it. The binaries produced during phases of hierarchical motion may lead to gravitational wave (GW) inspirals, but this depends on the outcomes of the chaotic states. In this paper we re-derive the elliptic outcome distribution using equilibrium statistical mechanics and explore it together with the hyperbolic distribution. When comparing to N-body simulations, we find that we can reduce the elliptic outcome model to one free parameter instead of the previously used two and that the predicted disintegration probabilities agree except for very low angular momentum triples. We then use both outcome distributions along with a star cluster model to design a Monte Carlo algorithm for repeated binary-single scatterings within dense star systems. We explore star cluster masses of [105 − 107] M⊙, with the goal of quantifying observably eccentric merger (OEM) GWs, visible to instruments such as LIGO and Virgo. Assuming an OEM detection sensitivity of fmin=10 Hz, emin = 0.1, we find the elliptic OEMs are about ∼ (32 − 63)% of the total elliptic mergers and that the total cluster mass greatly impacts the fraction of ejected binaries. The OEM to total merger fraction (OEM fraction) is found to be (2.6 − 4.4)%. Considering the detection sensitivity that GW interferometers have today (fmin ≃ 34.4 Hz) we obtain the OEM fraction in the (1.6 − 3.1)% range.

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Cite

BibTeXRIS
BibTeX
@misc{meylakh2026intermediate,
  title = {{Intermediate States in Chaotic Triple Evolution and Applications to Black Hole Merger Statistics}},
  author = {Dina Meylakh and Nicholas C. Stone and Nathan W. C. Leigh},
  howpublished = {arXiv},
  year = {2026},
  month = oct,
  doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2606.11294},
  eprint = {2606.11294},
  archivePrefix = {arXiv},
  url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.11294},
}
RIS
TY  - UNPB
TI  - Intermediate States in Chaotic Triple Evolution and Applications to Black Hole Merger Statistics
AU  - Dina Meylakh
AU  - Nicholas C. Stone
AU  - Nathan W. C. Leigh
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/19
PB  - arXiv
DO  - 10.48550/arxiv.2606.11294
UR  - https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.11294
AB  - Three-body interactions exhibit phases of strong chaotic evolution as well as hierarchical motion where one body separates from a binary and follows a hyperbolic or elliptic trajectory around it. The binaries produced during phases of hierarchical motion may lead to gravitational wave (GW) inspirals, but this depends on the outcomes of the chaotic states. In this paper we re-derive the elliptic outcome distribution using equilibrium statistical mechanics and explore it together with the hyperbolic distribution. When comparing to N-body simulations, we find that we can reduce the elliptic outcome model to one free parameter instead of the previously used two and that the predicted disintegration probabilities agree except for very low angular momentum triples. We then use both outcome distributions along with a star cluster model to design a Monte Carlo algorithm for repeated binary-single scatterings within dense star systems. We explore star cluster masses of [10^5 − 10^7] M_⊙, with the goal of quantifying observably eccentric merger (OEM) GWs, visible to instruments such as LIGO and Virgo. Assuming an OEM detection sensitivity of f_min=10 Hz, e_min = 0.1, we find the elliptic OEMs are about ∼ (32 − 63)% of the total elliptic mergers and that the total cluster mass greatly impacts the fraction of ejected binaries. The OEM to total merger fraction (OEM fraction) is found to be (2.6 − 4.4)%. Considering the detection sensitivity that GW interferometers have today (f_min ≃ 34.4 Hz) we obtain the OEM fraction in the (1.6 − 3.1)% range.
ER  -