Spatiotemporal variations in hydrometeorological drought across North Africa and indications of anthropogenic amplification
- 1Canada Research Chair in Statistical Hydro-Climatology, Institut National de la Recherche Scientifique, Centre Eau Terre Environnement, INRS-ETE, Québec, QC Canada
- 2University of Tunis El Manar, National Engineering School of TUNIS (ENIT), LR99ES19; Laboratory of Modelling in Hydraulics and Environment (LMHE), Tunis, Tunisia
Abstract
Conventional unidimensional approaches that monitor only a single type of drought in water-resources research, particularly in the context of emerging droughts, often lead to ineffective planning and management strategies. This study addresses that gap by examining multiple large-scale drought types through a streamlined, integrative framework for monitoring severe drought events driven by both climate change and human activities across North Africa (NA), a region characterized by pronounced data scarcity and observation gaps. The spatiotemporal analysis of hydro-meteorological drought variations across NA demonstrates that anthropogenic factors seem to have substantially intensified hydrological drought conditions throughout the region. Furthermore, between 2021 and 2024, the area experienced unprecedented meteorological droughts. Evaluation of multiple independent datasets shows that traditional univariate monitoring frameworks significantly underestimate the magnitude and persistence of extreme events, such as the 2010 NA drought, because they fail to capture the multidimensional and interactive nature of drought dynamics. These results highlight the necessity of adopting a multivariate, spatiotemporally integrated perspective to accurately assess extreme droughts, even where observational data remain limited. In Tunisia, the findings reveal that hydrological drought patterns diverge notably from meteorological trends: despite relatively stable precipitation between 2002 and 2010, groundwater storage declined sharply after 2010–2011. This divergence underscores the potential influence of anthropogenic stressors, particularly unsustainable groundwater abstraction, in amplifying and prolonging hydrological drought beyond the effects of climatic variability alone. Nevertheless, this relationship warrants further investigation. Overall, these insights hold critical implications for improving drought-monitoring systems and advancing sustainable water resources management across NA.
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BibTeX
@article{rahimpour2026spatiotemporal,
title = {{Spatiotemporal variations in hydrometeorological drought across North Africa and indications of anthropogenic amplification}},
author = {Morteza Rahimpour and Taha B. M. J. Ouarda and Emna Gargouri-Ellouze and Fairouz Slama},
journal = {Communications Earth \& Environment},
year = {2026},
month = jul,
doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03807-2},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03807-2},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Spatiotemporal variations in hydrometeorological drought across North Africa and indications of anthropogenic amplification
AU - Morteza Rahimpour
AU - Taha B. M. J. Ouarda
AU - Emna Gargouri-Ellouze
AU - Fairouz Slama
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/07/13
JO - Communications Earth & Environment
DO - 10.1038/s43247-026-03807-2
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03807-2
AB - Conventional unidimensional approaches that monitor only a single type of drought in water-resources research, particularly in the context of emerging droughts, often lead to ineffective planning and management strategies. This study addresses that gap by examining multiple large-scale drought types through a streamlined, integrative framework for monitoring severe drought events driven by both climate change and human activities across North Africa (NA), a region characterized by pronounced data scarcity and observation gaps. The spatiotemporal analysis of hydro-meteorological drought variations across NA demonstrates that anthropogenic factors seem to have substantially intensified hydrological drought conditions throughout the region. Furthermore, between 2021 and 2024, the area experienced unprecedented meteorological droughts. Evaluation of multiple independent datasets shows that traditional univariate monitoring frameworks significantly underestimate the magnitude and persistence of extreme events, such as the 2010 NA drought, because they fail to capture the multidimensional and interactive nature of drought dynamics. These results highlight the necessity of adopting a multivariate, spatiotemporally integrated perspective to accurately assess extreme droughts, even where observational data remain limited. In Tunisia, the findings reveal that hydrological drought patterns diverge notably from meteorological trends: despite relatively stable precipitation between 2002 and 2010, groundwater storage declined sharply after 2010–2011. This divergence underscores the potential influence of anthropogenic stressors, particularly unsustainable groundwater abstraction, in amplifying and prolonging hydrological drought beyond the effects of climatic variability alone. Nevertheless, this relationship warrants further investigation. Overall, these insights hold critical implications for improving drought-monitoring systems and advancing sustainable water resources management across NA.
SN - 2662-4435
ER -