Lithium supply capacity can meet most projected demand through 2035
- 1Environmental and Energy Systems Studies, Lund University
- 2Institute for Global Innovation and Development, East China Normal University
Abstract
Lithium demand is expected to increase substantially owing to the growing use of batteries for transport and stationary energy storage. Concerns about future shortages persist because lithium supply is currently concentrated in a limited number of regions and viable substitutes remain scarce. Here we show that global lithium supply is likely to meet or exceed demand through 2035 in all but the highest demand scenario. Supply is also projected to become less geographically concentrated over time, suggesting reduced producer influence and lower geopolitical supply risks. When foreign investments in mining projects are considered, major lithium-consuming regions are projected to secure sufficient supply to satisfy domestic demand under low and medium demand scenarios. Overall, our findings indicate that lithium is likely to become less critical despite rising demand. These conclusions are based on a global bottom-up assessment of 149 planned lithium extraction projects and the evaluation of low-, medium- and high-demand scenarios through 2035.
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BibTeX
@article{manberger2026lithium,
title = {{Lithium supply capacity can meet most projected demand through 2035}},
author = {André Månberger and Björn Nykvist and Qifan Xia and Oscar Gustafsson},
journal = {Communications Sustainability},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1038/s44458-026-00175-y},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s44458-026-00175-y},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Lithium supply capacity can meet most projected demand through 2035
AU - André Månberger
AU - Björn Nykvist
AU - Qifan Xia
AU - Oscar Gustafsson
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/25
JO - Communications Sustainability
DO - 10.1038/s44458-026-00175-y
UR - https://doi.org/10.1038/s44458-026-00175-y
AB - Lithium demand is expected to increase substantially owing to the growing use of batteries for transport and stationary energy storage. Concerns about future shortages persist because lithium supply is currently concentrated in a limited number of regions and viable substitutes remain scarce. Here we show that global lithium supply is likely to meet or exceed demand through 2035 in all but the highest demand scenario. Supply is also projected to become less geographically concentrated over time, suggesting reduced producer influence and lower geopolitical supply risks. When foreign investments in mining projects are considered, major lithium-consuming regions are projected to secure sufficient supply to satisfy domestic demand under low and medium demand scenarios. Overall, our findings indicate that lithium is likely to become less critical despite rising demand. These conclusions are based on a global bottom-up assessment of 149 planned lithium extraction projects and the evaluation of low-, medium- and high-demand scenarios through 2035.
SN - 3059-4308
ER -