Time-resolved predictability of end-of-therapy outcome and relapse after cure in Phase 3 tuberculosis trials
- 1Helmholtz Munich
Abstract
Relapse after apparently successful tuberculosis (TB) therapy remains difficult to predict, and how relapse risk evolves throughout treatment remains unclear. Using harmonised clinical data from two Phase 3 trials (2,918 participants), we performed time-resolved prediction of end-of-therapy (EOT) outcomes and post-treatment relapse by training models using tabular data at monthly intervals from baseline to therapy end. Prediction of EOT outcomes improved after month 3 (ROC-AUC up to 0.84), driven by sputum-smear and solid culture. In contrast, relapse prediction among participants with favourable EOT outcomes and completed follow-up improved only modestly through month 3 (ROC-AUC 0.58-0.63) before declining, with age, sex, clinical symptoms and bacterial burden contributing most strongly to prediction. Models trained on large language model-derived embeddings, a more flexible representation of the same variables, matched tabular relapse models in performance throughout therapy, and outperformed tabular EOT outcome models at months 3 and 4 ({Delta}ROC-AUC: 0.12 and 0.14), with longitudinal modelling and sparse variable inclusion only improving relapse prediction at months 4-6 ({Delta}ROC-AUC: 0.09, 0.19 and 0.12), however with reduced interpretability. Models incorporating data after baseline provided incremental improvements in post-treatment relapse risk stratification compared with baseline cavitation and sputum smear alone (4-month relapse-free survival: 94.8%/78.5% for model-derived low/high risk groups, vs. 91.4%/82.9% for baseline easy-/hard-to-treat groups). Overall, these findings suggest that while routine clinical data collected after baseline can improve post-treatment risk stratification, it offers limited predictive value for relapse, underscoring the need for relapse-specific biomarkers.
Related
- Caputo fractional-order differential equations for tuberculosis transmission and relapse dynamics with empirical validation
- Biomimetic mycobacterial dual spatiotemporal targeting induces trained immunity for tuberculosis photothermal immunotherapy and relapse prevention
- Spondylodiscitis in a tuberculosis-endemic setting in Somalia: epidemiological, clinical, radiological, and outcome findings from a retrospective study
- Experimental versus clinical studies capture distinct types of relapse in tuberculosis
- Case Report: Relapse of SLE associated with EBV infection in a patient after CAR-T cell therapy: a clinical case
BibTeX
@misc{garger2026timeresolved,
title = {{Time-resolved predictability of end-of-therapy outcome and relapse after cure in Phase 3 tuberculosis trials}},
author = {D. Garger and J. H. Burks and N. I. Paton and D. J. Sloan and G. Maher-Edwards and F. Theis and M. P. Menden and F. P. Casale},
howpublished = {medRxiv},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.15.26362605},
url = {https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.15.26362605v1},
note = {CC BY},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Time-resolved predictability of end-of-therapy outcome and relapse after cure in Phase 3 tuberculosis trials
AU - D. Garger
AU - J. H. Burks
AU - N. I. Paton
AU - D. J. Sloan
AU - G. Maher-Edwards
AU - F. Theis
AU - M. P. Menden
AU - F. P. Casale
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/15
PB - medRxiv
DO - 10.64898/2026.09.15.26362605
UR - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.09.15.26362605v1
AB - Relapse after apparently successful tuberculosis (TB) therapy remains difficult to predict, and how relapse risk evolves throughout treatment remains unclear. Using harmonised clinical data from two Phase 3 trials (2,918 participants), we performed time-resolved prediction of end-of-therapy (EOT) outcomes and post-treatment relapse by training models using tabular data at monthly intervals from baseline to therapy end. Prediction of EOT outcomes improved after month 3 (ROC-AUC up to 0.84), driven by sputum-smear and solid culture. In contrast, relapse prediction among participants with favourable EOT outcomes and completed follow-up improved only modestly through month 3 (ROC-AUC 0.58-0.63) before declining, with age, sex, clinical symptoms and bacterial burden contributing most strongly to prediction. Models trained on large language model-derived embeddings, a more flexible representation of the same variables, matched tabular relapse models in performance throughout therapy, and outperformed tabular EOT outcome models at months 3 and 4 ({Delta}ROC-AUC: 0.12 and 0.14), with longitudinal modelling and sparse variable inclusion only improving relapse prediction at months 4-6 ({Delta}ROC-AUC: 0.09, 0.19 and 0.12), however with reduced interpretability. Models incorporating data after baseline provided incremental improvements in post-treatment relapse risk stratification compared with baseline cavitation and sputum smear alone (4-month relapse-free survival: 94.8%/78.5% for model-derived low/high risk groups, vs. 91.4%/82.9% for baseline easy-/hard-to-treat groups). Overall, these findings suggest that while routine clinical data collected after baseline can improve post-treatment risk stratification, it offers limited predictive value for relapse, underscoring the need for relapse-specific biomarkers.
ER -