Long Term Pediatric Vaccine Tender Scheduling with Quantity Discounts
Abstract
Pediatric vaccine procurement for low- and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs) requires long-term coordination across heterogeneous vaccine markets, competing stakeholder objectives, and uncertain demand, yet tenders are currently scheduled as a series of independent renewals. We extend the Hypothetically Coordinated Vaccine Market (HCVM) framework to schedule multi-year tenders with flexible lengths and all-unit quantity discounts, and compare three objectives: a balanced coordinatingentity model (UG), a social-benefit model that minimizes missed doses (SB), and a producer profit-maximizing model (MP). Using UNICEF ten-year demand forecasts and 30 demand replications across six discount scenarios, we find that the procurement objective, not demand variability, drives cost-to-tender and schedule complexity. Quantity discounts favor large producers, concentrating the market and increasing supply chain vulnerability. Discount effectiveness depends on market maturity rather than valency: pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines are already near their price floor, and among monovalent vaccines only rotavirus responds to discounts, whereas HPV and PCV remain too expensive to compete. Removing pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines from the procurement pool sharply increases missed doses. These results give planners practical guidance on objective selection, discount design, and protecting access to combination vaccines.
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BibTeX
@misc{uhorchak2026long,
title = {{Long Term Pediatric Vaccine Tender Scheduling with Quantity Discounts}},
author = {Nicholas Uhorchak and Ruben Proano and Sandra Eksioglu and Burak Eksioglu},
howpublished = {arXiv},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.48550/arxiv.2610.19045},
eprint = {2610.19045},
archivePrefix = {arXiv},
url = {https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19045},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - UNPB
TI - Long Term Pediatric Vaccine Tender Scheduling with Quantity Discounts
AU - Nicholas Uhorchak
AU - Ruben Proano
AU - Sandra Eksioglu
AU - Burak Eksioglu
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/13
PB - arXiv
DO - 10.48550/arxiv.2610.19045
UR - https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.19045
AB - Pediatric vaccine procurement for low- and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs) requires long-term coordination across heterogeneous vaccine markets, competing stakeholder objectives, and uncertain demand, yet tenders are currently scheduled as a series of independent renewals. We extend the Hypothetically Coordinated Vaccine Market (HCVM) framework to schedule multi-year tenders with flexible lengths and all-unit quantity discounts, and compare three objectives: a balanced coordinatingentity model (UG), a social-benefit model that minimizes missed doses (SB), and a producer profit-maximizing model (MP). Using UNICEF ten-year demand forecasts and 30 demand replications across six discount scenarios, we find that the procurement objective, not demand variability, drives cost-to-tender and schedule complexity. Quantity discounts favor large producers, concentrating the market and increasing supply chain vulnerability. Discount effectiveness depends on market maturity rather than valency: pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines are already near their price floor, and among monovalent vaccines only rotavirus responds to discounts, whereas HPV and PCV remain too expensive to compete. Removing pentavalent and hexavalent vaccines from the procurement pool sharply increases missed doses. These results give planners practical guidance on objective selection, discount design, and protecting access to combination vaccines.
ER -