Holocene millennial climate variability influenced by tropical–Antarctic ocean–atmosphere interactions
8 affiliations
- 1State Key Laboratory of Loess Science, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi'an 710061, China
- 2Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm 10691, Sweden
- 3Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710049, China
- 4Interdisciplinary Research Center of Earth Science Frontier, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
- 5Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao 266000, China
- 6State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science and College of Ocean and Earth Sciences, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China
- 7Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, China
- 8Laboratoire des Sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE-IPSL), unité mixte CEA-CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris Saclay, Orme des Merisiers, Gif sur Yvette CEDEX 91191, France
Abstract
A prominent unstable feature, millennial-scale climate oscillation (MCO), punctuated the Holocene. Solar activity and deep ocean variability are generally regarded as the origin of the MCO, yet the dynamics remain debated. Using a Holocene transient simulation with the EC-Earth climate model (8 to 0 ka BP), together with a global compilation of 304 temperature reconstructions, here we identify a robust ~1,350-y oscillatory mode that characterizes Holocene climate variability and is self-sustained and crucially influenced by tropical–Antarctic ocean–atmosphere interactions. Within each cycle, Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) strengthening evolves with the developing warming and an El Niño-like tropical sea surface temperature (SST) response, accompanied by anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the high-latitude Southern Ocean. Northward cold advection of the associated enhanced westerly winds off the Antarctic coast overcomes the effect of sea ice retreat to promote AABW formation, ocean stratification, and warming. Positive feedbacks including sea ice-albedo, tropical air–sea interaction, and SST-AABW magnify surface warming till AABW reaches its peak. Thereafter, reduced brine rejection from sea-ice retreat weakens AABW, counteracts the warming, and commences a switch to its cooling phase. The dominant periodicity, consistent with that inferred from proxy reconstructions, is confirmed by complementary climate simulations. These results provide an alternative physical mechanism for Holocene millennial-scale climate variability. Under future anthropogenic warming, a positive phase of the oscillation may heighten the positive feedbacks, thereby increasing the risk of rapid climate transformation.
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BibTeX
@article{zhou2026holocene,
title = {{Holocene millennial climate variability influenced by tropical–Antarctic ocean–atmosphere interactions}},
author = {Peng Zhou and Zhengguo Shi and Zhisheng An and Wenju Cai and Pascale Braconnot and Qiong Zhang},
journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America},
year = {2026},
month = oct,
doi = {10.1073/pnas.2538010123},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2538010123},
note = {CC BY-NC-ND 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Holocene millennial climate variability influenced by tropical–Antarctic ocean–atmosphere interactions
AU - Peng Zhou
AU - Zhengguo Shi
AU - Zhisheng An
AU - Wenju Cai
AU - Pascale Braconnot
AU - Qiong Zhang
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/10/27
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2538010123
UR - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2538010123
AB - A prominent unstable feature, millennial-scale climate oscillation (MCO), punctuated the Holocene. Solar activity and deep ocean variability are generally regarded as the origin of the MCO, yet the dynamics remain debated. Using a Holocene transient simulation with the EC-Earth climate model (8 to 0 ka BP), together with a global compilation of 304 temperature reconstructions, here we identify a robust ~1,350-y oscillatory mode that characterizes Holocene climate variability and is self-sustained and crucially influenced by tropical–Antarctic ocean–atmosphere interactions. Within each cycle, Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) strengthening evolves with the developing warming and an El Niño-like tropical sea surface temperature (SST) response, accompanied by anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the high-latitude Southern Ocean. Northward cold advection of the associated enhanced westerly winds off the Antarctic coast overcomes the effect of sea ice retreat to promote AABW formation, ocean stratification, and warming. Positive feedbacks including sea ice-albedo, tropical air–sea interaction, and SST-AABW magnify surface warming till AABW reaches its peak. Thereafter, reduced brine rejection from sea-ice retreat weakens AABW, counteracts the warming, and commences a switch to its cooling phase. The dominant periodicity, consistent with that inferred from proxy reconstructions, is confirmed by complementary climate simulations. These results provide an alternative physical mechanism for Holocene millennial-scale climate variability. Under future anthropogenic warming, a positive phase of the oscillation may heighten the positive feedbacks, thereby increasing the risk of rapid climate transformation.
SN - 0027-8424
SN - 1091-6490
ER -