Chikungunya waves in 2025 signal risk of endemicity in China
- 1Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Public Health and Biosafety, Yunnan Provincial Key Laboratory of Cross-Border Infectious Diseases Control and Drug Innovation, School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Yunnan, China
Abstract
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission in Guangdong, southern China, intensified markedly in 2025, with successive outbreak waves in Foshan and Jiangmen followed by wider dissemination across all 21 prefectures during a peak domestic travel period. By late 2025, more than 25,000 cases had been reported, suggesting a departure from the historically import-driven and geographically limited outbreaks previously observed in China. These observations raise the possibility of an early transition towards more sustained transmission, although repeated introductions followed by local amplification remain an alternative explanation. Key contributing factors include mobility-associated amplification, climate variability, flood-related expansion of mosquito breeding habitats, favourable urban ecology, and incomplete interruption of transmission during cooler months. Although winter temperatures are suboptimal for sustained transmission, vector persistence and possible vertical viral transmission may permit low-level circulation between epidemic waves. In this context, distinguishing repeated importation from local persistence becomes critical. Preventing endemic establishment will require sustained inter-epidemic surveillance, anticipatory vector control, and clearer policy pathways for deployable vaccination strategies. Author summary: In 2025, southern China experienced its largest recorded outbreak of chikungunya, a mosquito-borne viral disease that can cause fever and severe joint pain. Unlike previous outbreaks in China, which were small and linked to imported cases, this outbreak spread widely across an entire province following multiple waves of transmission. We examined this pattern to understand whether it represents a temporary event or an early sign of a more lasting problem.
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BibTeX
@article{tee2026chikungunya,
title = {{Chikungunya waves in 2025 signal risk of endemicity in China}},
author = {Kok Keng Tee and Dongkui Mu and Xueshan Xia},
journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
year = {2026},
month = sep,
doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0014685},
url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014685},
note = {CC BY 4.0},
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
TI - Chikungunya waves in 2025 signal risk of endemicity in China
AU - Kok Keng Tee
AU - Dongkui Mu
AU - Xueshan Xia
PY - 2026
DA - 2026/09/02
JO - PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0014685
UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0014685
AB - Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) transmission in Guangdong, southern China, intensified markedly in 2025, with successive outbreak waves in Foshan and Jiangmen followed by wider dissemination across all 21 prefectures during a peak domestic travel period. By late 2025, more than 25,000 cases had been reported, suggesting a departure from the historically import-driven and geographically limited outbreaks previously observed in China. These observations raise the possibility of an early transition towards more sustained transmission, although repeated introductions followed by local amplification remain an alternative explanation. Key contributing factors include mobility-associated amplification, climate variability, flood-related expansion of mosquito breeding habitats, favourable urban ecology, and incomplete interruption of transmission during cooler months. Although winter temperatures are suboptimal for sustained transmission, vector persistence and possible vertical viral transmission may permit low-level circulation between epidemic waves. In this context, distinguishing repeated importation from local persistence becomes critical. Preventing endemic establishment will require sustained inter-epidemic surveillance, anticipatory vector control, and clearer policy pathways for deployable vaccination strategies. Author summary: In 2025, southern China experienced its largest recorded outbreak of chikungunya, a mosquito-borne viral disease that can cause fever and severe joint pain. Unlike previous outbreaks in China, which were small and linked to imported cases, this outbreak spread widely across an entire province following multiple waves of transmission. We examined this pattern to understand whether it represents a temporary event or an early sign of a more lasting problem.
SN - 1935-2735
ER -